Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/14

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Washington Commanders/Philadelphia Eagles Under 43.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

The first meeting between these teams only saw 32 total points, and I wouldn’t be surprised if tonight’s rematch produced even less offense. The Washington defense has been playing some excellent football under the radar lately, only allowing 16 points per game in the past 4 weeks. And they’re a great matchup for what Philadelphia wants to do in the run game, ranking 2nd in DVOA metrics against the run.

The Commanders also held the Eagles scoreless on 8 of 12 drives in that first meeting, and the defense has only improved since. But their offense has been extremely conservative with Taylor Heinicke under center, and are 31st in situation-neutral pace. The Eagles defense is for real and held Washington scoreless in the first meeting until the final minutes, so I expect them to turn in another excellent effort. Primetime games have trended under this season, and divisional matchups are 29-13-1 to the under, so I’m seeing another defensive battle here.

NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder/Boston Celtics Over 228 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on NBATV

Last year’s Boston Celtics streaked to the NBA Finals on the back of their excellent defense, but this year’s version has started much differently. Excellent defensive players missing time has certainly contributed, as has a different coaching style, but it has these Celtics up to the top of the league in scoring. They also rank first in offensive efficiency, second in shooting percentage, and first in 3-point attempts.

So it’s no wonder Boston has cashed the highest percentage of overs so far this season, and are tied for the highest plus/minus to the total as well. The team they’re tied with for that top plus/minus spot? None other than the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have the second-best over percentage in the league. And the Thunder are scorching hot offensively, hanging 132 and 145 points in the last two games. Neither squad is anything special defensively right now, and with OKC averaging the most possessions per game in the league I’m seeing another shootout between hot offenses.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Navy/Coppin State Over 138 (-110): 6:00 PM CT No TV

My preseason priors did not have Navy as a very functional offense, I’ll be the first to admit that. So for the Midshipmen to put up 74 points in both their opening games is a surprise, but one that can be exploited here. They’ll face a Coppin State team that’s looking fairly poor defensively, which was to be expected. The Eagles have allowed 78 and 83 regulation points to open the season, and it has earned them the rank of 304th in defensive rating.

The key here for me is that neither of Coppin State’s opponents were able to shoot from long range, which is an indictment of the shooting instead of praise for Coppin’s perimeter defense. But here comes a Navy team shooting it from deep at the sixth-highest percentage in the country so far. That’s been the key to their offensive success and should continue here, leading to plenty of points. The most respected model I pay attention to projects this game well into the 140’s, so I’m happy to take the over on this number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 944-783 ATS (+88.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.