Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/13

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Denver Broncos/Buffalo Bills Under 47.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

I don’t know how I can bet the over in a primetime game. Including the international series, stand-alone games in the NFL are an incredible 28-7 to the under. Even more incredible is Monday Night Football games, which are on a 10-1 under run this season.

It’s not like these offenses are particularly scary either, with the Bills rolling up yards but not points, and Denver being, well, Denver. And it’s possible the Broncos have plugged some of their well-publicized defensive holes, allowing just 15.0 PPG the past three games with two of those against the Chiefs. Ultimately though it’s the trends that I simply can’t ignore, so I’ll look for another low-scoring night game here.

Monday Night Football Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Javonte Williams Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Russell Wilson Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Josh Allen Over 6.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Josh Allen Under 0.5 Interceptions (+105)

NBA (0.75 Unit) NY Knicks @ Boston Celtics -4.5 First Half (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on NBATV

The Celtics did not seem to like losing two tough road games in Minnesota and Philadelphia, because they’ve returned home with a vengeance. Their two games since returning to Boston have been blowouts of lesser Eastern Conference opponents, with solid leads of 9 and 12 points at halftime. The Celtics don’t mess around in first halves, leading the league with a plus-9.6 average margin overall this season, and that rises to plus-11.8 in home games. The Knicks are at minus-3.5 in first halves on the road, and come into this game a little overinflated after three wins over poor competition. Boston’s talent and motivation should be a shock to New York’s system, and I see the Celtics up comfortably at half.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Michigan/St John’s Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FS1

It’s another national TV spot for Rick Pitino as he starts at St John’s, and I think this will be a track meet. One concern with games like this is Madison Square Garden impacting shooting sightlines, but the efficiency of these offenses is so high I don’t think it will matter. Michigan comes into this game ranked 15th in offensive efficiency, which is easy against soft competition.

But St John’s is not going to be a lockdown defensive team, preferring instead to play Pitino’s up-tempo style. The Red Storm offense also looked really good in their opener, especially from long range which Michigan hasn’t defended particularly well this year. So in a matchup of two extremely good shooting teams, I agree with the metrics sites that have this cruising into the upper 150’s range.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Southern/Arizona Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network

Books just cannot make the total in these kinds of games high enough, Arizona is just that good and aggressive on offense. Last Monday’s opener for the Wildcats was an over bet on principle and so is this one. It helps that Arizona rolled up 122 points in that game, which is not out of the question again tonight as Southern already had 108 put on them by TCU last week.

This also might be a little bit of a letdown for Zona after their massive road win over Duke on Friday, which could allow the Jaguars to hang around more than they should. That just equates to more scoring in my book since the Wildcats offense will not be stopped, and should clear the century mark with ease. With the scoring floor raised that high, this game is headed for the 160’s without much of a problem.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1631-1448 ATS (+83.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.