Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/11

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzles -4 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

Things are going off the rails in a hurry for this Timberwolves team, and it won’t get any easier against their nemesis from last season’s playoffs. After 3 double-digit defeats in their 4-game home stand, I’m losing faith in Minnesota’s ability to compete with the top-tier teams in the league.

I’d put Memphis in that category based on their season so far, especially at home, where they have one of the best average margins to the spread in the NBA. By comparison, the Wolves have a minus-6.5 average margin to the spread in road games, and I just see it as too much to ask for them to cover this fairly short number.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Timberwolves/Grizzlies Over 234.5 (-110)

Leaky defense is one of the biggest reasons I see the Wolves struggling in this game. The past 3 games for them have seen opponents score 1.138 points per possession, which would put them 29th in the league if extrapolated over the full season. But Memphis hasn’t been much better, ranking 23rd in defensive efficiency this season. These are still two offenses that can score in bunches and play at a high tempo, so both should exploit the poor defense to push this game over the total.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): D'Angelo Russell Over 2.5 Made 3-Pointers (+130)

One of the biggest frustrations from Minnesota falling to Memphis in the playoffs last spring was Russell's disappearance. The Wolves point guard tormented the Grizzlies all of last regular season, so maybe he’ll return to that form again here. He averaged 4.8 makes from downtown in the regular season against Memphis last year, shooting a scorching 46.3% from long range. He’s also been firing away in recent games, so the opportunity should be there. Memphis is 22nd so far this year in opponent 3-pointers made per game, so at this juicy return, I’ll count on DLo to splash at least three from three.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs -1.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

The injury report drove this line through zero, as the Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton tonight. But this short of a price is still giving Milwaukee a little too much credit in a game San Antonio should be able to handle fairly easily. The Spurs blew an excellent opportunity to knock off Memphis on Wednesday night and should come into this game hungry for a win against a depleted opponent.

The big difference-maker in this matchup should be San Antonio’s fast pace wearing down a short-handed Bucks team that just had a double-overtime game on Wednesday. And without both Holiday and Giannis, their perimeter defense will struggle against a Spurs team that takes and makes a lot of shots from deep. A non-conference game that Milwaukee doesn’t need is likely one they’ll be disinterested in, so I like the Spurs to snap their losing streak here against the vulnerable Bucks.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Portland St. @ Portland -15 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on WCC Network

Anyone who read this column towards the end of last college basketball season probably noticed my affinity for this Portland Pilots program. Well, none of that love has faded as we start the new season, and this team is only getting better. The progression they made offensively last spring already carried over, as they pasted Florida A&M on Wednesday by 37 points. The Pilots have incredible continuity, bringing back their top seven scorers from last season, and they should be a sneaky team in the WCC.

Their cross-town opponent tonight, Portland State, has anything but continuity coming into this season. This Vikings roster is completely overhauled, and that is going to put them at a significant disadvantage against a team like the Pilots. Smart money is all over Portland here as well, correcting the odds-makers’ mistake of doubting this experienced and talented team. Stay up late and watch an offensive clinic from the Pilots here as they roll to another easy win.

Degenerates

NCAA Football Colorado @ USC -34.5 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on FS1

It’s style points season in college football as CFP contenders try to juice their resumes. The Pac-12 is alive and well in the CFP discussion after Clemson fell last week, and USC is squarely in the mix to capture the conference crown. But they can’t have close wins over teams as awful as Colorado – only beating expectations will suffice. This is a game where the Trojans can name their score, so it’s really just a question of how much effort they’ll put in, considering rival UCLA is on deck with a conference title game berth on the line.

But my goodness is Colorado bad, allowing 40-plus points in all but 2 games this season. They allow the second-most points and rushing yards in the country, so even if USC keeps it vanilla and on the ground they should pile up points. Top receiver Jordan Addison is expected back for USC as well, so expect them to throw at will in an effort to run up the score. With this line sitting just below the key number of 35, I’ll take a shot that USC is in the mood to deliver a blowout and attract some attention from the committee.

Tiny Nick is 938-780 ATS (+87.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.