Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/11

Locks

NFL/NCAA Football (1.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110)

Baltimore Ravens -1.5 @ Miami Dolphins: 7:20 PM CT on FOX

Laying more than a touchdown with a Ravens team that’s been living dangerously in recent weeks is not ideal, even against an atrocious Dolphins squad. But I don’t think Miami has any chance of winning this game, so I’ll tease Baltimore down to nearly a pick ‘em. It doesn’t really matter to me who starts at quarterback for the Dolphins in this game, they’re still the team ranked 28th in scoring, 30th in total offense, and barely snuck by the Texans while committing 5 turnovers.

Baltimore and their top-ranked rushing attack should be able to control this one throughout against a poor Dolphins run defense. To add some icing to the cake, John Harbaugh is 9-0 ATS in his career against Miami, which is an NFL record of sorts. Asking him and this Ravens team to basically just win should make for an easy teaser leg.

North Carolina @ Pittsburgh -0.5: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

Anyone who watched North Carolina knock off Wake Forest on Saturday saw a Tar Heels defense that simply can’t stop anything. Now they have to travel to face an even more prolific passing offense, and a highly motivated Pittsburgh team to boot. The Panthers control their own destiny in getting to the ACC title game, and this should also be an opportunity for QB Kenny Pickett to show off for the Heisman committee.

Pickett should rack up the stats in this one, as the nation’s 5th-leading passer faces a defense that’s allowed 334.3 passing yards the last 3 weeks. I also think the spot UNC finds themselves in is extremely difficult. Knocking off a top-10 in-state rival just 5 days ago and then needing to travel creates a big flat spot, especially for a team like UNC who has alternated good wins and bad losses all season. Only needing the Panthers to win this game should be an easy way to close this teaser.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kennesaw State/Creighton Over 148.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on FS1

This Creighton team lost a good amount of offensive talent from last year’s Sweet 16 team, but their style of play will create a lot of high-scoring games.

The Bluejays are going to be one of the most up-tempo teams in the country this season, and as we saw in their first game that makes for over fuel regardless of opponent. Creighton held Arkansas-Pine Bluff to just 37.5% shooting on Tuesday, both teams shot only 28% from deep, and the game still blew past the total. Tonight they’ll get another weak opponent in Kennesaw State, but one that shoots better and is a willing partner in playing fast.

Both these teams are turnover-prone as well, creating plenty of runouts and extra possessions. And Creighton is also blessed with the biggest mismatch in this game, 7’1” center Ryan Kalkbrenner who gets them plenty of easy buckets inside. I expect a fast-paced game where Creighton runs it up here, and that should get it over a moderately high total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 434-336 ATS (+87 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.