Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/10

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 115.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Timberwolves have been flexing the defense to start this season, now up to best in the NBA for defensive rating. But that hasn’t stopped them from putting a big number on overmatched opponents, which they did against the Jazz and Pelicans. If the Wolves want to run it up on San Antonio they certainly can, with the Spurs checking in at 29th in defensive rating. San Antonio’s opponents are 7-1 over this team total while averaging 125.9 PPG. The good defense from Minnesota is holding down the full-game total and this isolated number as a result, so I’ll bet that the Spurs keep letting teams get whatever they want.

NBA (1 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/Washington Wizards Over 239 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

These teams cashed the over for me on Wednesday night, and I’m going right back to that well at essentially the same number. Changing the location and making this an in-season tournament game makes no difference to me, and I’m sure it makes no difference to these teams’ feelings about defense. Wednesday’s meeting hit 248 points despite a terrible second quarter from the Hornets, and some out of character offense from both teams. For all the reasons I loved the over on Wednesday, I love it again tonight between two teams who refuse to play defense.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Morehead State @ Purdue -17 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Big10+

After watching what Purdue did to Samford on Monday night, it’s clear this team is trying to stomp their non-conference cupcake opponents. Samford is a good program too, so getting run out of Mackey Arena by 53 was a little shocking. The key I’m looking at though is Purdue’s 51-17 lead at halftime of that game, and I think we see another big lead at the break tonight.

Morehead State is probably more talented offensively than Samford was, but I don’t think it will matter. They were down 20 at halftime to Alabama on Monday, and will now have to play a bigger Purdue team that’s better defensively. My guess is the Boilermakers are still stewing over their loss to a 16-seed in March, and taking it out on lower-level programs this fall to atone. That should lead to another fast start in a complete mismatch of a game.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Texas A&M-Commerce @ Kentucky -26.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network+

Kentucky is another team with motivation to run it up on non-conference cupcakes. I think the rumors of John Calipari’s seat getting warm are well-founded, and he needs positive vibes only out of this year’s team. They started well by running out a bad New Mexico State team by 40, and they can do the same thing here.

Texas A&M Commerce is still in the process of leveling up to D1, and it shows against quality competition. Blowout losses this week to Texas A&M by 32 and Texas Tech by 27 showed this team is nowhere near the level of a blue-blood like Kentucky. The Lions shot just 29% in both of those games, and that lack of offense will get you behind in a hurry against a motivated Wildcats squad. Expect Coach Cal to keep the pedal down here and roll by a massive margin.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Chattanooga +4 @ Louisville (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

A lot of analytics sites believe the wrong team is favored in this one, and I kind of agree. That’s why this number has plummeted from an open of 7.5 to here, as books simply can’t grasp how bad a team Louisville is. The Cardinals were in a dogfight to the end against UMBC on Monday, and that’s a far inferior opponent to what they’ll see tonight. Chattanooga is a high-quality program with an impact transfer Jan Zidek now in the fold. With Louisville unable to stop anything, look for Chattanooga to probably take this one outright, but I’ll grab the points for the insurance factor.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Abilene Christian +10.5 @ NC State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

With a lot of seniors on this team, the Wolfpack should be better than what I saw on Monday against a bad Citadel team. The loss of both Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner is going to hurt this offense, and I don’t know that they have the firepower to run out a team like Abilene tonight. The Wildcats just took down a Big12 team on the road, knocking off Oklahoma State on Monday as their defense was extremely impressive. I think we see a hard-fought game here where the under is probably in play, but I’ll take the big number with a talented ACU squad.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Alabama State @ Iowa -18.5 First Half (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Peacock

Scott Van Pelt has what he calls “general principle games” and that’s really what this is with Iowa tonight. It was the case on Monday when I laid a big number with the Hawkeyes in both the first half and full game, and I’m coming back to the first half for tonight. Iowa led by 24 at half in a game where their opponent actually shot it pretty well.

I don’t think this Alabama State team will do much offensively at all, as they shot 27% in a horribly ugly game with Ole Miss on Monday. If that’s the kind of offense you’re bringing to Carver-Hawkeye, you’re in deep trouble. This Hornets squad is a perennial bottom-feeder that always gets run out by upper level competition, and once again I expect Iowa to show no mercy.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Nicholls State/LSU Over 146.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I haven’t seen any analytics site make this total less than 148 points, so I really don’t understand the move down to here. I’m jumping on the over though because of the results I saw from these teams on Monday night. I knew LSU was going to want a fast start to the season against an MVSU team that can’t guard a parked car, and they got it in rolling up 106 points.

They could do that again here if they wanted, as Nicholls has a poor defense and loves to play at a fast pace. The Colonels got into a shootout with Tulane on Monday, looking like their usual selves from years past, and I can’t see anything other than another high-scoring affair here.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Mississippi Valley State/Oklahoma Over 141 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Speaking of Mississippi Valley State who had 106 put on them by LSU, I’m going to count on their complete disregard for defense once again. The Delta Devils usually have deflated totals for their games thanks to an offense that isn’t much better than the defense. But against power conference opponents like they’ll see again tonight in Oklahoma, the points they give up is the key.

The Sooners played a fairly high-possession game on Monday and shot it really well, so don’t be surprised if MVSU gives up 100 again to a hot offense. Oklahoma will get too many easy buckets and free throws, raising the scoring floor and making this total far too low.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Delaware State @ Texas -19.5 First Half (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on Longhorn Network

Another team I’m looking to go against at every opportunity is this Delaware State squad. They were one of the worst in the country last season, and not much has changed. The Hornets can’t shoot, can’t defend, and were run out by 34 points against a Penn State team with nowhere near the talent Texas has.

The Longhorns are so dangerous now with transfers Max Abmas and Kadin Shedrick coming in that it’s tough for other Big12 teams to handle them. They led Incarnate Word by 31 at the break on Monday before letting up in the second half, which doesn’t surprise me from coach Rodney Terry. They’ll do whatever they want to DSU tonight though, and that should make for another massive lead by halftime.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1607-1436 ATS (+82.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.