Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/10

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Falcons/Carolina Panthers Under 42.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

Weather is the story here as Hurricane Nicole makes an impact to most of the southeast. That’s causing rain and wind in Charlotte tonight, which is a combination that has one of the biggest drags on scoring. As a result, I’m even more confident that we’ll see another under come in for Thursday Night Football. It’s currently a 16-6 run to the under on Thursdays in the NFL, which is not a trend I’m stepping in front of with two weak and banged-up teams.

I’m not scared off here by these teams combining for 71 points just two weeks ago either. That game required a 34-point fourth quarter, and was played indoors. The weather should force this game to be played on the ground, which Atlanta wants to do anyway as the third-most run heavy offense. I see that keeping the clock moving and limiting scoring, keeping this one under a key totals number of 6 full touchdowns.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Cordarrelle Patterson Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

The Atlanta offense is heavily based on the run game, as I mentioned above, and it mainly goes through Patterson. The Falcons back was eased into his first game after coming off injured reserve last week but should play a larger role here tonight. The Panthers allow the 28th-most rushing yards per game and rank 23rd in rush defense DVOA. There should be plenty of opportunity for Patterson, and that should get him over this total.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): P.J. Walker Under 168.5 Passing Yards (-110)

The weather and expected game style obviously play a big role in this handicap. But a sneaky angle, in my opinion, is that Walker might not finish this game. He was pulled last week after looking awful, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it again. The Falcons certainly don’t want to get embarrassed by him as they did in Week 8, so they should bring a better game plan as well. It’s just hard for me to see a struggling QB in bad weather, and with an under environment, get over this number that he’s only cleared 3 times in his career.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers/New Orleans Pelicans 1st Half Under 116.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports NO

I’ve noticed a trend in the NBA recently where first quarters and first halves seem to be higher-scoring than later in games. The first-half total in this game seems to be confirmation of that trend, as it’s 6 points higher than the total for the second half. But I just think this is a miss given how these two teams play.

New Orleans is still 3rd in the NBA in overall points per game, so they tend to get into higher-scoring affairs. But they do the bulk of that scoring later, as they’re the highest-scoring team in second halves. First quarters and halves not so much, ranking 21st and 23rd, respectively, in scoring. Portland is similar, as they’re 27th in first-half scoring but 14th after halftime.

Both the Pelicans and Blazers are top-10 in first-half points allowed as well, making an even stronger case that we’ll see more defense early in this one. I just smell a trap with this total that seems to be trying to take advantage of overall trends, but misses some glaring ones for these two squads.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 935-779 ATS (+86.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.