Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 @ Sacramento Kings (-110): 9:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
You have to be impressed with this Cavaliers team to start the season, and I really like this situation for them. Cleveland’s blown lead against the Clippers on Monday creates a solid bounce-back spot in this game. I see them taking advantage of it against a Kings team in a difficult situational spot. Sacramento is just home from a long road trip and gave their best effort to knock off the Golden State Warriors on Monday.
That is usually draining on a team and makes the Kings a fade for me tonight. I’m not sure everyone has fully caught up to just how good Cleveland might be, but the results speak for themselves. The Cavs are a top-5 team in both offensive and defensive rating, which has helped earn them the NBA’s best ATS mark. While Sacramento has been feisty as an underdog this season, they might very well be up against the best team in the East here, and that has me laying the points.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) IUPUI Team Total Under 52.5 @ Drake (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’ll be picking on this IUPUI team in various forms all season long. Drake should be good once again this year, as a ton of talent returns. But laying almost 30 points with them is a little excessive, so I’m looking at this isolated total instead. While they don’t have Iowa State's defense, which smothered IUPUI on Monday, it doesn’t take a whole lot to slow down the Jaguars.
The opener for IUPUI saw them shoot just 33.3% and turned it over 29 times in managing a mere 39 points. Poor shooting and turnovers will always be there for a team devoid of talent, so Drake can let them get in their own way to some extent. This also figures to be a slower-paced game again, as IUPUI was one of the slowest teams in the country last season, and Drake was 264th in possessions per game. With all that combined, I just don’t see the Jaguars producing 36% more scoring than they did on Monday.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Lipscomb/South Dakota Over 150.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This should be an absolute track meet between two teams with little interest in playing defense. Last season saw Lipscomb rank 324th in points allowed and 326th in defensive efficiency, while South Dakota was 254th and 298th in those categories, respectively. It was on display for South Dakota in their opener, as the Coyotes allowed 85 points to a Wisconsin team that should be down offensively this year.
Lipscomb should have no trouble exploiting that tonight, as their top three scorers return from last season, including Ahsan Asadullah, one of the dominant interior scorers in the mid-major ranks. South Dakota also returns their three scoring leaders from last season, so the continuity for both teams should really help the offenses tonight. In a game where defense might be optional, that should get this over the total with ease.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Bellarmine +10 @ Louisville (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ACC Network
What do you think of when you see the brand name of Louisville basketball? What do you think of when you see the name Bellarmine? It might be precisely what the books are hoping you’ll think, but you’d be wrong. Louisville has a chance to be perhaps the worst team in power conference basketball this season. That makes Bellarmine, the cross-town little brother school in Louisville, a live dog in this game as they look to make a splash.
The Knights acquitted themselves extremely well against one of the toughest non-conference schedules last season in their second year of D1 play. And they’re only improving, while Louisville like they hit rock bottom. This line has cratered behind smart money coming in on Bellarmine, but I still like them getting double digits here in a game that should be quite close.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 932-778 ATS (+86.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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