Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/07

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Stony Brook/St John’s Over 146.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

I really wish this total hadn’t steamed up 4 points from last night, so while I’m being more cautious with it, I’m still liking the narrative here. Rick Pitino making his long-awaited return to power conference basketball should be a spot where he and his team show out. Put them on national TV, at a school in St John’s known for high tempo, and this could be a track meet. Stony Brook needs to adopt a faster tempo now that they’ve moved to the CAA so this should be good practice for them. But I just have to believe that Pitino will keep his foot on the gas all night, and that should push this one over the total.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Mount St Mary’s @ Maryland (-20.5; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Big10+

This is a good spot to buy relatively low on a Maryland team that I think will be impressive this season. The Terrapins return most of their core from last year’s tournament team, most importantly guard Jahmir Young and forward Julian Reese. Those two are a matchup problem for any team in the country, and should help the Terps dominate the Mountaineers here. Maryland just has too much size, athleticism, and shooting for a lower-tier team to keep it close in College Park.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) North Dakota @ Iowa -11.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Big10+

The general principle plays hit yesterday, and this is another one. When Iowa hosts a cupcake at Carver-Hawkeye Arena they show zero mercy, particularly early on. Their first 3 buy games to open last season saw them lead at the break by 19, 20, and 21 points. While this Iowa roster doesn’t quite have the star power of years past, they still have the shooting and tempo to run out a bad North Dakota team. Coach Fran McCaffrey demands these kinds of hot starts, and I see one coming today that I’m liking the relatively low number for.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Iowa -20 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

I'll lay it full game with the Hawkeyes here too, as their dominance in these spots is well-documented. Everyone remembers their shocking loss last season to Eastern Illinois, but that was a major outlier result. The past 10 times Iowa is laying 15-plus points at home, they're 9-1 ATS. Go back even further to the past 20 instances and they're 16-4 against the number. I'll take that kind of return any day.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Auburn vs Baylor -1 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

Auburn lost a lot of offensive talent from last year’s team that really struggled to shoot and score at times. Their solution to that problem was to bring in lots of D2 transfers, and I just don’t think the Tigers will have the horses to stay with Baylor’s talent. To be fair, the Bears also lost a lot of talent from last season, but they replaced it with a couple of elite freshmen and transfer RayJ Dennis from Toledo.

Plus, Baylor still has plenty of experience and talent in the post. So if Dennis can score and distribute the way he did at Toledo, this Bears team will be just fine and I think that starts tonight. The rare neutral site opener is probably holding this line down, but I’ll take the pure talent edge from Baylor in this spot.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Auburn/Baylor Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Again, I wish this total hadn't caught a ton of steam, but I'll still look to the over at this number. The Baylor defense is probably going to be their weak spot again this season because of an undersized backcourt built for shooting, not defending. If Auburn's transfers pan out to be quality shooters at the D1 level, then their offense can do enough here against a suspect defensive team. Both coaches have no problem getting into track meets early in the season, so this should be an up-tempo game that also has potential for the foul game to be played late.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball UNC Asheville +11 @ Michigan (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on BTN

All you need is Drew Pember. That will be the motto for Asheville as they run it back with most of last season’s roster that lost 2 games once the calendar flipped to 2023. That includes Pember, the dominant interior force that should get at least some Naismith Award attention. This is a team loaded with upper classmen, and I think they give the Wolverines all they can ask for. There is expectation that this will be a down year for Michigan even with Jace Howard and Jaelin Llewellyn back, so I’ll take a shot that they allow Pember and the Bulldogs to stay competitive tonight.

Tiny Nick is 1596-1431 ATS (+78.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.