Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/06

Locks

Monday Night Football Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

1 Unit – Breece Hall Over 82.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Zach Wilson Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Garrett Wilson Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Justin Herbert Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110)

NBA (1 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/Indiana Pacers Over 238.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

Who’s playing defense in this game? Certainly not Indiana, who is now down to dead last in defensive rating on the season. And I don’t think it will be San Antonio either, who is at least better than the Pacers from a metrics perspective at 22nd in defensive rating. But the Spurs have still allowed all but one opponent so far this year to top 120 points, and are on a back-to-back with travel here after playing an overtime game last night. These are also two teams that are top-5 in pace, so we should see them go up and down the floor all game to cash the over on this high total.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers Team Total Over 120.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-PHI

Speaking of teams that don’t play defense, only Indiana is worse than this Washington team in defensive rating and defensive efficiency. But the Wizards can claim the bottom spot for points allowed at 125.2 per game as this highly unserious bunch keeps getting run out nightly. Combine their atrocious defense with the NBA’s fastest pace, and it’s no wonder that only the depleted Grizzlies have failed to get over this team total against Washington. I’m seeing the Sixers clear it easily tonight behind their excellent offense that’s 4th in efficiency and 6th in scoring.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Northern Arizona/UConn Over 141.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FS1

I’m excited to watch the defending champion Huskies open the season here, especially since rumors are that they have even more talent than last year. A team this loaded, opening the season at home in a buy game, is usually a solid bet to put up a lot of points and run away with this game. Laying 26 points is problematic though, so I’m looking for both teams to light up the scoreboard in a game that I have closer to 150 points.

There’s no questioning UConn’s offensive ability in this spot, not after last season’s start against their cupcake opponents. Those 6 buy games saw the Huskies put up some impressive numbers, and the games averaged 149.3 points. With Northern Arizona in town, I think both teams can contribute to this total in a big way though. The Lumberjacks completely changed their identity down the stretch of last season, riding an up-tempo offense to the conference title game. I don’t see why they change that style now, and it should lead to plenty of points from both teams tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Delaware State @ Penn State -19.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on BIG10+

This Penn State team is completely revamped with an overhauled roster that looks nothing like the team that made a run to the Big 10 title game in March. But there have been some serious gets for the Nittany Lions in the transfer portal, namely Ace Baldwin and Qudus Wahab, that make them pretty dangerous with new coach Mike Rhoades at the helm. They should absolutely demolish Delaware State here, as the Hornets should once again be one of the worst teams in the whole country. Rhoades will want to make a statement in his first game in Happy Valley, and I see the Lions rolling by far more than this number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UMBC +9 @ Louisville (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I think the secret is out on Louisville, as this number was much higher yesterday. It was a poorly-kept secret that the Cardinals were once again going to be a miserable basketball team as this program tries to scrape itself off the rock bottom. Just like last year, news of struggles in scrimmages against the softest of competition are coming out. And hopefully just like last year, that will lead to them having all kinds of trouble against official opponents to start the season. This UMBC team is completely overhauled from last year, but I’ll take a bunch of points with anyone against what still appears to be a joke of a Louisville squad.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UL Monroe @ Houston -29.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

It’s that time of year when you just close your eyes and lay the heavy lumber with Houston, especially since they’re looking to make a statement in their first game as a Big12 member. You just have to trust the process, and it usually pays dividends. Books don’t know what to expect at this stage so they haven’t inflated the numbers, even with a brand name program like the Cougars are. But just look at last season’s slate of cupcakes for Houston, who won their 7 home buy games against bad teams by 38.4 points on average. UL Monroe went on the road to power conference opponents twice last season, losing by 33 and 35 points, so I think this number is going to look like a discount later on tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Mississippi Valley St/LSU Over 136 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on SEC Network+

This LSU team badly needs a reset this year after turning a 12-1 start into a 14-19 record last season. A good place to start that process is against perennial cupcake MVSU who is always fun to watch for the sheer awfulness. The Delta Devils play zero defense, especially in transition, and love to jack up three-pointers, a style that is high variance but perfect for overs against a power conference team.

With the Tigers looking to excite the home crowd and get a collection of transfer talent more time on the floor together, I don’t see them taking their foot off the gas here. You can always count on LSU to have size and athleticism on their roster, and with MVSU lacking any interior presence I see the easy buckets piling up points in a hurry. I would not be surprised to see LSU try to hang 100 here, and that makes this total far too low.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Morgan State/Arizona Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on PAC12 Network

Much like just trusting Houston to cover big numbers, you simply have to trust Arizona to create shootouts in their opening games. The Wildcats have been consistent in Tommy Lloyd’s two seasons at actively trying to hang triple digits on every cupcake that walks into the McKale Center. There were 6 such games last season, and those averaged 169.3 points with Arizona accounting for 98.8 of those.

That includes a game against these Morgan State Bears that saw 161 total points. Morgan State loves to push tempo and will have no problem running with Arizona, as they were 7th in possessions per game last season. With massive transfer get Caleb Love now in Tucson and the Wildcats looking to get rid of the memory of their first-round exit in March, they should run it up again tonight. That creates such a high floor of scoring that even this high a number is one you just have to close your eyes and take the over on.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1586-1429 ATS (+73.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.