Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/05

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120)

Texas Tech @ TCU (-1): 11:00 AM CT on FOX

If TCU coach Sonny Dykes has any clue how to motivate his team, he’ll play the disrespect card to the utmost extreme here. The Horned Frogs checked in at No. 7 in the first CFP rankings, the only undefeated team to be behind 1-loss Alabama. If that doesn’t get TCU’s attention and help them avoid the potential look-ahead to Texas next week, then maybe nothing will.

But they should win this game regardless, and that’s exactly what I’m asking them to do on a teased number. And they’ve done exactly that in this matchup the past 3 seasons, by an average margin of 12.3 points. Texas Tech has not kept it within the true spread of this game in any of their road contests, and they have a terrible mess at the quarterback position. A TCU team that finds a way every week should do so again here.

Tulane (-0.5) @ Tulsa: 11:00 AM CT on ESPNU

Again, I’m just asking a far superior team to get a victory, and again it’s a squad that can play the disrespect card on their CFP ranking. The Green Wave were 19th in the initial ranking, 6 spots behind a Kansas State team they beat on the road. This team would be undefeated if not for a flat spot loss after that upset over K-State, and they’re quietly playing some of the best football in the country, tied for the best ATS record nationally.

Tulane has made huge strides on offense in recent weeks, and just had a bye week to prepare for this game. Dual-threat QB Michael Pratt and excellent running back Tyjae Spears should tear up a Tulsa defense that’s 120th against the run. And one of the best secondaries in the country will make life difficult on a Tulsa offense that’s always in catch-up mode. Smart money moved this line up through a full touchdown in support of Tulane, so I’ll bring it back down to just a pick-em price.

Tennessee (+16) @ Georgia: 2:30 PM CT on CBS

Everyone – and I mean everyone – seems to believe in Tennessee today, and backing a trendy public dog is always a worrisome thought. But I’m adding a lot of cushion here to the other team tied for the nation's best ATS record. And the Bulldogs are certainly not invincible, having turned in sketchy performances against a couple inferior opponents this year.

I really can’t say the same about Tennessee, whose offense is every bit as good as advertised, and has yet to be slowed down. Georgia is definitely the best defense they’ve faced, but its strength is against the run and hasn’t faced a pass attack with anywhere close to this kind of firepower. Georgia will also be missing its top pass rusher, and without pressure on Hendon Hooker, the Vols should be able to continue moving the ball at will. More than two touchdowns is a massive window in a game I expect to be a thriller, or at the very least, see Tennessee get in the back door.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Baylor/Oklahoma Over 61.5 (-110): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN+

With quarterback Dillon Gabriel back healthy for Oklahoma, their games become an automatic over bet for me. His ability as a dual-threat is what makes this offense tick, and utilizes the elite weapons around him. The Sooners are scoring 37.7 PPG when he starts, and zero when he doesn’t. But this defense is still horrifically bad, allowing 40 PPG in conference play, and should get gashed again today.

Oklahoma ranks 107th against the run this season and will have to contend with one of the better rushing offenses in the country from Baylor. Only 22 teams in the country are running for over 200 yards per game, and the Bears are one of them. Big gains should be there all day for both teams, and that should generate another typical Big 12 shootout.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Liberty/Arkansas Over 61 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on SEC Network

This total should not be south of the key number of 63, or in other words, 9 total touchdowns. The fact that it is gives a little too much credit to the fraudulent defensive statistics for Liberty. The Flames have faced 7 non-power conference opponents, holding them to 19.3 points on average. But when they did step up to a power conference foe, they surrendered 37 points to Wake Forest.

Arkansas, with its SEC-level talent and explosive offense, should expose those mirage statistics today, especially with how they’ve been playing lately. With quarterback KJ Jefferson back to full health, the Razorbacks have hung 52 and 41 points the last two weeks. But this is still one of the most generous pass defenses in the country, ranking 127th in yards allowed, so Liberty should be able to score as well. Both teams play at a high pace and are capable of explosive plays, so I see this one getting over a total that’s just too low.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 924-775 ATS (+82.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.