Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/04

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Dallas Mavericks Over 216.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

I’m very confused by this total, and the movement on the line, as I think we’re looking at a shootout here. Before any lines were posted, I was expecting to see the total in this one come out at around 225 points, so this is highly discounted from my own numbers. I’ve also seen other models project a final score in the mid-220’s, so the fact that the total has actually dropped a couple points makes no sense.

It’s almost as if the past two games for Toronto have been written off as flukes. But to me, hanging 139 points one night and then following it up with 143 the next is a sign of an offense figuring it out. These teams are both top-4 in the NBA for points per possession, floor percentage, and offensive rating, so the pure efficiency at the offensive end should be enough to make for a high-scoring game.

Toronto should be able to use their league-best transition offense to rack up plenty of points, too, especially facing a Mavs defense that doesn’t do well in the open court. The Raptors don’t need to keep going nuclear, just approach their season average of 113.9 PPG against an average Dallas defense. The rest should take care of itself to get this over a fairly low total.

Degenerates

NBA Milwaukee Bucks/Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Quarter Over 55.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

The concern here is questionable tags being applied to Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert for this game, as both are dealing with an illness. Otherwise this is a no-brainer bet on two teams who are both top-5 in the NBA for first quarter scoring. Milwaukee is putting up 31.3 points in opening quarters, while Minnesota scores 30.6 on average.

While both tend to play excellent defense as well early in games, I tend to believe that the strength-on-strength matchup of the offenses will be the story here. It’s a question of pace, and both squads like to push it early on behind their excellent scorers. I’d monitor the injury report closely, particularly for Edwards, but this has the look of a game where the scoring takes off early.

Tiny Nick is 923-775 ATS (+82.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.