Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/03

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles -7 First Half @ Houston Texans (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

I’m not willing to lay two touchdowns on the road in the NFL, especially on a short week. But I have to back the Eagles somehow in this game because of the matchup advantage. Backing them in the first half has been a cash machine all season. Philadelphia has covered the first-half number in every game so far.

Books are certainly adjusting to that, and the result is this slightly awkward number, but I’m not terribly concerned. The Eagles lead the league in first-half scoring at 21 PPG, along with a plus-12.7 average margin. By comparison, Houston checks in at 28th in first-half scoring and enters this game with significant personnel issues on offense.

And the defense is historically bad against exactly what Philly wants to do: run the football. The Texans have been gashed for 478 rushing yards the past two weeks, and now face a multi-faceted rush attack, an elite offensive line, and a big threat of the pass, unlike last week. This should be a spot where Philly puts it on the Texans early and then coasts late, so take them to keep covering the number going into halftime.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Houston Texans Team Total Under 15 (-110)

This isolated total is just below Houston’s per-game average, and they’ve only gone under it 3 times on the season. But this Eagles team is easily the best defense they’ve seen all year long. With quarterback Davis Mills looking like he’d be expected to look, and missing some key weapons, that Philly defense should be able to tee off. The Eagles also have the best time of possession in the NFL, and that ground game should keep the ball away from Houston most of the night. I just don’t see enough opportunities or success for the Texans here to get over this team total.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Miles Sanders Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Sanders has quietly been having a strong season, even getting into the end zone 5 times despite saying we should avoid him in fantasy football. Things will get a lot easier for him tonight against this horrific Texans run defense that’s allowing 186 yards per game. Sanders should get plenty of opportunity tonight with Philly looking to exploit that defense, and then sit on a lead late in the game. That should translate to big gains and a big night out of Philadelphia's lead back.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 922-773 ATS (+82.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.