Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/02

Locks

NFL/NCAA Football (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Tennessee Titans +9 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

After the impressive debut of Will Levis, the spread moved down fairly significantly for a game of this caliber. It seems to have settled on a field goal margin though, which puts the underdog in perfect position for the traditional Stanford Wong teaser that covers a full possession. I’m going to have to dare Pittsburgh, likely with Mitch Trubisky at the helm, to beat a solid opponent by that big margin.

None of their four wins have come by more than a touchdown, and they’re not a team I’d want to back in the favorite role. The Titans are who I want as a dog though, with Mike Vrabel having a 6-2 record straight up when catching points on short rest. Hopefully Levis didn’t use up all his magic last week, and Tennessee can keep this tight.

South Alabama @ Troy +2.5: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2

This is simply too good of a number to pass up, as steam has driven Troy to a much shorter favorite as the week has gone on. I think that movement is due to positive news on South Alabama QB Carter Bradley, who hurt his knee late in the game on Saturday. The Jaguars have been pretty explosive offensively with Bradley, but the level of defensive competition has been nothing compared to what they’ll see tonight.

Troy has been dominating their Sun Belt opponents on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 9.7 PPG in conference play despite facing some stellar offenses, and moving into the top-25 for defensive SP-plus. If Bradley is limited or not able to play, the Trojans should be able to clamp down once again. Meanwhile their offense should ride the nation’s third-leading rusher Kimani Vidal, and take advantage of a defense that’s vulnerable to the big play. Home field will also matter in this rivalry game, and I see Troy coming away with their sixth straight win in this series.

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Will Levis Longest Completion Over 36.5 Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Treylon Burks Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Will Levis Over 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Derrick Henry Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kenny Pickett Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

Degenerates

NCAA Football Wake Forest/Duke Under 45 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

I’m mostly fading the Wake Forest offense here that has looked nothing like what we got used to for a few years. Mitch Griffis is no Sam Hartmann, that’s for sure, and the Demon Deacons have really struggled against ACC defenses, managing just 15.6 PPG in conference play. They’ll face a really tough Duke defense here that’s mostly held up during this 1-3 stretch for the Blue Devils. And with Riley Leonard’s ankle pretty much guaranteed to not be healed yet on this short week, the Duke offense should struggle as well. I think we see a slower-paced game here between struggling offenses, and that should keep it below even this low of a total.

Tiny Nick is 1569-1418 ATS (+69.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.