Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Phoenix Suns Over 227.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
The Timberwolves haven’t had very many offensive eruptions this season, certainly not like last year when they were the best over bet in the league. They’ll need one tonight in Phoenix, though, as this hot Suns offense will be tough to keep up with. The Suns are now tied for the most points per game in the NBA, and also lead in offensive efficiency. If their past three home games of averaging 127.3 points are any indication, this offense is trending up even with Deandre Ayton sidelined.
If that level of scoring continues here, this total is very gettable. The middling offensive statistics that Minnesota has produced so far this season have to turn around at some point, there’s simply too much firepower on this team. But if they continue playing at the NBA’s third-fastest pace, it will give this Phoenix offense plenty of scoring chances that should create the environment needed to hit the over.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Rudy Gobert Over 13.5 Rebounds (-110)
Gobert has gone over this number of rebounds in 4 of 7 games so far this season, averaging 14.7 boards thanks to a couple of monster nights. In fact, since the 2019-20 season, Stifle Tower has averaged at least 13.5 rebounds per game, so this seems like a fair number. But with Ayton still out with an ankle injury, this Phoenix team is undersized up front. That should give Gobert more opportunity to clean the glass and get over this prop total.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Miami Heat Over 226.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
A couple of teams playing disappointing basketball square off here, and I agree with the pick-em line since feels like a true tossup. But I’m willing to go after the total here and look to the over since that’s the only thing that’s consistent about Golden State games. The Warriors haven’t gone under this total all season, with their games averaging 240.7 points. They’re also beating the over by 11.4 points, the best plus/minus to the total in the league.
Golden State just can’t stop anything right now, allowing the most points in the league, and giving up 127.3 PPG on the road. That troubling road defense is the biggest reason I’m liking the over here, especially with Miami out for revenge in this game. But a normally stout Heat defense is nothing special this season, ranking 18th in defensive efficiency. Scoring is not the problem for Golden State, so the way they play should create the conditions that lead to another over for them.
MLB (0.65 Unit) Houston Astros Moneyline (-125) @ Philadelphia Phillies: 7:05 PM CT on FOX
The Phillies stole a victory in Game 1 in improbable fashion, but it seemed like that was a minor hiccup in the inevitable Astros series win. Houston bounced back in Game 2 against Philadelphia’s best pitcher, and now there’s a very favorable matchup for the Astro bats.
They’ll get to face Ranger Suarez, who has not earned much trust from the Phillies in this postseason. Houston should jump all over him as they did in the final regular season series, tagging Suarez for 6 runs in just 3 innings. It’s no surprise, as the Astros have been crushing lefty pitching all season and even more so in the postseason.
I’m also expecting Houston starter Lance McCullers to hold down the Philly bats tonight. The Astro righty is excellent against left-handed bats, which are the majority of Philadelphia’s key hitters. All the time off since Game 2 also benefits the deeper Houston bullpen, so I see the pitching matchup being Houston’s ticket to a 2-1 series lead.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 922-767 ATS (+85.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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