Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/9

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Maryland @ Ohio State -21 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on FOX

There are a lot of Maryland fans in my family so this one hurts a little, but I really think the Terrapins are in serious trouble here.

Iowa gave a blueprint of how to beat Maryland and hot QB Taulia Tagovailoa last week by getting pressure on him. Now Maryland faces pass-rusher university in Ohio State and will be without top receiving weapon Dontay Demus. Seeing the Terps get blown out by Iowa last week should not be too surprising actually, as they’ve now failed to cover against their past 6 ranked opponents. Maryland was an underdog in all those games and lost by an average of 40.7 points.

The Buckeye buzz saw is not who Maryland wants to face right now as OSU looks to atone for a slow start to the season. They’ve won their past 3 games by an average 37.3 point margin, scoring 50.7 PPG and showing off a defense that’s finally putting it together. Ohio State won the last meeting 73-14 and has never been shy about laying out a Big10 opponent, so I think Bucky rolls again here.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Boise St. @ BYU -6 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

BYU lost their star quarterback to the 2nd overall pick in the NFL draft, and I think they’ve gotten better this season. Less reliance on the quarterback position and vastly improved defense have the Cougars deserving of their high rank.

They’ve already handled three opponents from the Pac-12 this season, two of them ranked at the time, and shouldn’t have much trouble with a Boise State team that’s past its prime. BYU had no trouble with the Broncos last season in Boise as a 5-point favorite, cruising to a 51-17 win. Boise is looking worse this season with the loss of coach Brian Harsin to Auburn, and that’s especially true on offense where they’re 126th in rushing. The Broncos can’t stop much of anything either, and a balanced BYU offense should carve them up.

The Cougars have owned this series recently as well, going 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings, along with a 10-4 ATS mark their past 14 against the Mountain West. They’ve made a habit this season of winning tough games, and with an extra day to prepare for this one, I’ll trust them at less than a touchdown here.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Florida St. @ North Carolina -17.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

North Carolina reached as high as 5th in the AP poll last season, at which point they traveled to Tallahassee and choked it away against a bad Florida State team. This should be a big revenge spot for a Tar Heels team that’s already had its choke moment this season and is looking to atone for it.

UNC has been a powerhouse at home this season, winning all three games by an average of 31 points. They’re also 3-0 ATS in those games with an average margin against the number of plus-13 points. Behind Sam Howell and unstoppable wide receiver Josh Downs, there’s no reason the Heels can’t put together another blowout win. The Seminoles might have gotten the winless monkey off their backs last week, but this is still a team that’s careless with the football and awful in the back end of their defense.

North Carolina should use this as a tune-up game for their upcoming tough stretch of games, much like they did last week in beating down Duke by 31 points. With revenge on their minds against a horrible FSU team and Howell running the offense, this one could get out of hand.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Penn State @ Iowa -1.5 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on FOX

This is just a tough spot for Penn State to walk into, and I think Iowa capitalizes to establish themselves as the Big 10 favorite.

The Hawkeyes are really good in these situations overall, going 14-1 straight up when favored by 4 points or less. They just do everything right, play disciplined football, and take care of business in tough games. They aren’t afraid of anyone either, going 5-0 ATS their past 5 games against ranked teams, and have one of the best home-field advantages at Kinnick Stadium.

Penn State meanwhile has a history of falling flat in these moments since James Franklin took over. The Nittany Lions are 0-7 straight up in true road games against top-10 teams, with only one of those games being a single-digit affair. They’re coming off a big revenge win last week, are overvalued off 4 straight home wins, and had one less day than Iowa to prepare for this game. The Hawkeyes know they have a legitimate chance at a CFP invite but it hinges right now on this game, so look for them to get the win and cover a small number.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech +1 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ACC Network

Enter Sandman. That’s all you really need to know about this game, with the Metallica song being such a famous aspect of night games at Lane Stadium. It’s underrated as a truly difficult venue to play in, and a terrible spot for Notre Dame to find themselves.

By losing last week to Cincinnati, the Fighting Irish said goodbye to an undefeated season and any hope of a playoff invite. Historically that’s had a deflating effect on teams that thought of themselves as contenders, and it has shown up in the results the following week. That flat spot is made all the worse by Virginia Tech’s strength at home – especially under the lights – where they’re 5-1 ATS their past 6 games as an underdog.

This line is on the move and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hokies as short favorites by kickoff. But with such a strong home-field advantage against a deflated Notre Dame squad, I like Tech to grind out a tough win here.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Alabama -11 First Half @ Texas A&M (-110): 7:00 PM CT on CBS

We’ve reached that point of the college football season when it’s time to start rolling with Alabama in every first half. The incredibly profitable angle from last year is back for more and should have an easy time in this one against a struggling Texas A&M squad.

I like this number for a lot of reasons, but chief among them is the Crimson Tide have played three Power 5 teams this season and held a bigger lead than this at half in every game. In fact, they’ve averaged a 21.3 point margin at the break in those games, all against teams with more potent offenses than the Aggies can put together. Backup QB Zach Calzada has been overwhelmed for A&M, and now faces the most defensive talent he’s seen in his life. It also bears reminding that Jimbo Fisher is an ex-assistant for Nick Saban, and the pupils never get the better of the master. Saban is in the habit of letting up against his former assistants late though, another reason to back Alabama early in this one.

With back-to-back road games for the Tide it’s even more likely they get up big early and coast late, so I like Alabama to take a multiple touchdown lead into the half. There’s a fairly low total in this game due to A&M’s offensive woes, creating a shorter line and thus shorter halftime line, so I love that natural value for such a dominant first-half team.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 392-302 ATS (+86.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.