Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/4

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 @ LA Chargers (-110): 7:15 PM on ESPN

This seems like a case of incorrect market valuations for both teams and backing the Las Vegas Raiders as underdogs has paid big dividends this year and in this rivalry.

The Raiders have just been the better team so far this season, winning all three of their games under challenging circumstances. But they’re still the Raiders, and I don't have a lot of belief in such a downtrodden franchise. The hot start can’t be ignored though, and their overall DVOA metrics profile actually ranks them 8 spots ahead of their opponent tonight. Let’s also not forget that the previous 3 games in which the Los Angeles Chargers were favored over Vegas, the Raiders won the game outright.

With the Chargers fresh off a huge win in Kansas City last week, this definitely has the vibe of a let-down spot. And while the game is being played in Los Angeles, tonight’s crowd will be much more favorable for the Raiders. This has been a very close series the past two seasons, and in what should be another close game I’ll take the points with Las Vegas.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Raiders Moneyline (+140)

Betting the Raiders straight up as underdogs on Monday Night Football has already worked once this season, and I’m going for it again here. In fact, betting the Raiders as underdogs this season has already produced a 340% ROI so it’s definitely worth another shot. With a solid plus-juice return here, I’ll split a unit and look for Vegas to continue their hot start.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Mike Williams Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 7:15 PM on ESPN

This is a pretty shockingly low number given the rapport being developed between Justin Herbert and Mike Williams this season. Williams has turned into his favorite target, leading the team in receptions and yards, plus the big receiver has cleared this total in all their games this season.

The Raiders have yet to face a true passing quarterback this season but have still allowed the opponent’s top pass-catcher to clear this number in every game. This is still a vulnerable Raiders secondary, and I see Williams getting over this prop with ease tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 392-297 ATS (+89.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.