Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/31

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Buffalo +15.5 @ Toledo (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2

Toledo should be much more dominant than they are, with a ton of talent back this year including Dequan Finn at quarterback. But the Rockets are just 3-5 ATS this season in a fairly weak MAC, and have one of the country’s weakest strength of schedule ratings. But a 7-1 team being at home against a squad like Buffalo creates a big spread, and this is too big in my opinion.

Toledo is going to be able to run the ball effectively here, but that will slow the game down and make it lower-scoring, giving a big underdog more natural value. The Bulls have also really improved in conference play, and have dominated this matchup going 3-0 straight up and ATS against Toledo since joining the MAC. Rockets coach Jason Candle always seems to get his team into dogfights when he’s a heavy favorite, so I’ll take the big number here.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic +7.5 @ LA Clippers (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:30 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

Everyone is waking up to the news that James Harden is on his way to LA as the newest Clipper. But he isn’t playing tonight, and neither are the pieces LA shipped to Philadelphia in the trade. The Clippers were already shorthanded coming into tonight with several injuries and absences littering the injury report, putting them in a tough position.

And the Magic are just undervalued in general as the market has been slow to catch up to their improvements. The most impressive of those improvements is on defense, as Orlando owns the league’s best defensive rating so far this season. Without a deep Clippers roster to worry about, I think that defense can clamp down, create a lower-scoring game, and keep the Magic inside this inflated number.

Degenerates

MLB Andrew Heaney Under 9.5 Outs Recorded (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:03 PM CT on FOX

Both teams are set to go with bullpen games tonight, and I don’t see Heaney having a long leash as the Texas starter. My assumption is that the Rangers would want to have Heaney get Corbin Carroll out twice in the lefty-on-lefty matchup, and that would get him to the over here. But I don’t think he makes it, as he’s been sparingly used this postseason, isn’t very stretched out, and will be on a light pitch count. The Diamondbacks are also batting .300 against lefties in the postseason, so Texas might have no choice but to pull him early and get to another of their long relievers.

Tiny Nick is 1568-1412 ATS (+72.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.