Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Fanduel)
LA Rams @ Dallas Cowboys PK: 12:00 PM CT on FOX
As a lifelong Cowboys fan I know full well their pattern of beating up on bad teams and losing to good ones. That’s especially true at home, and they’ve shown it this year with both home games being blowouts over bad opponents. Coming off the bye here gives them another solid advantage as they’ve been able to prepare for this Rams offense that’s used a lot of smoke and mirrors this season. No sharp money is even coming in on LA at the juicy full-touchdown number, indicating that another blowout is possible here, so I’ll just ask my Boys to get the win here.
Atlanta Falcons/Tennessee Titans Under 42.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Gross. That’s all you need to know about the matchup here that’s guaranteed to set offensive football back a couple decades. But the books have already accounted for that impending pitiful display, and it’s tough to go under on a total in the mid-30’s no matter what teams are involved. Getting to the other side of the key number of 42 is a different story though, as I don’t see Desmond Ridder combining with Will Levis and/or Malik Wills to put up more than 6 touchdowns today.
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals: 3:25 PM CT on CBS
It’s hard to bet on a team after they played their best game of the season, which is what we saw from Baltimore last week. There’s bound to be some amount of letdown, plus it inflates the number like we’re seeing with this spread approaching double digits. But Arizona is still pathetic, with the clock finally striking midnight on the Josh Dobbs run as the Cardinals are dead last in EPA per play the past 3 weeks. Their defense might be the worst in the league, and will not be able to handle a locked-in Lamar Jackson today even if the Ravens come back to earth a little. Remember that Arizona is in the business of losing, and I think they will by a comfortable margin that makes this teased number easy to cover.
NFL (0.75 Unit) NY Jets -3 @ NY Giants (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
This battle for control of MetLife Stadium is not likely to be pretty, but I think the Jets are in a much more favorable situation. They’re off the bye here and used it to get healthy, notably at cornerback with Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed coming off the injury report. That defense was playing some inspired football going into the bye, and should have an easy time today against the banged-up Giants offense.
What this comes down to is since both quarterbacks are bottom-tier backups, you have to look at the defenses to see who gives their team a decided advantage. The Jets are elite on that side of the ball while the Giants are mostly awful, and that has me laying it with a team that seems to be on the rise and in a good spot.
NFL Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)
(0.5 Unit) CeeDee Lamb Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
(0.5 Unit) Cam Akers Over 41.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
(0.5 Unit) Drake London Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
(1 Unit) Rhamondre Stevenson Over 60.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
(1 Unit) Breece Hall Over 92.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
(0.5 Unit) Josh Downs Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
(0.5 Unit) Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-115)
(0.75 Unit) AJ Brown Anytime TD (+115)
(0.5 Unit) Bryce Young Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-110)
(0.75 Unit) Zay Flowers Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
(0.25 Unit) Geno Smith Over 0.5 Interceptions (-105)
NBA (1 Unit) Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI
I’ve always loved this bet with Milwaukee in general, and especially against a bad defensive team like they’ll see tonight. This number is as short as it is because of Khris Middleton being out tonight. But I really don’t think it will matter early on since two of the most dangerous players in the NBA are still on the roster. The Bucks love to push tempo early and have the personnel to do it effectively, especially with Damian Lillard now on the team.
Atlanta has looked very rough defensively in their two games, seemingly getting progressively worse on that end of the floor, and should have no answer for Milwaukee’s star power. That should allow the Bucks to jump out to another strong early lead, particularly with them wanting to refocus after turning a 19-point lead into a squeaker in their opener.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1557-1401 ATS (+74.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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