Locks
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) UNLV +20.5 @ Nevada (-110): 9:00 PM CT on CBS Sports Network
There’s a saying about taking the points with a bad team that you’re betting an underdog with fleas. Well, this dog has fleas, 3 legs, and just bit the neighbor kid. But I still like it.
Nobody is going to mistake this UNLV squad for a quality team – winless on the season, just eight wins the past four seasons combined, and towards the bottom in most statistical categories. But they’ve been competitive recently, with one-score games the last four weeks against some reasonably strong competition. Plus they’ve played this rivalry game with a trophy at stake very close the past several years. The Rebels have only a -4.3 per-game margin the past four meetings, covering this number each time with two outright wins.
Meanwhile, Nevada has only one win by this margin against an FBS opponent on the season. And their leaky defense combined with an all-or-nothing offensive philosophy can easily let teams hang around. Three touchdowns is simply too many points for the situation, so I’m looking to adopt this mangy mutt.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers +8 @ LA Lakers (-110): 9:30 PM CT on SportsNet LA
The Laker tax is real, it’s excessive, and I’m not paying it here against a surprising Cavaliers team.
Behind some excellent defense, Cleveland has now won 3 straight, 2 of those coming on the road against Western Conference contenders. Oddsmakers want you to see the Lakers logo and lay the points, but I’m not buying into this team yet. Especially not after they blew a 26 point lead to the worst roster in the NBA on Wednesday, failing to cover for the 4th time in their 5 games.
This number has been bouncing back and forth on injury news for LeBron James and Anthony Davis, although I doubt James would miss a game against Cleveland. Regardless, I think this is too many points for teams on opposite trajectories, especially with the Lakers being naturally overvalued by the public.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 420-323 ATS (+89.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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