Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/28

Locks

NFL/NCAA Football (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110)

Arizona Cardinals -0.5: 7:20 PM CT on FOX

With this tease, I’m able to erase the line movement from early this week and get an undefeated team, at home, at a pick ‘em price. Against a significantly undermanned Packers team too. Green Bay is officially without their top two wide receivers in Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. Yes, I know, Aaron Rodgers is capable of incredible things, especially in primetime games. But those absences force Green Bay to be too one-dimensional, and the Packers won’t be able to keep up once this Cardinals team gets rolling.

This Arizona offense has a habit of overwhelming teams, and it should happen fairly early in this game against a Packers defense that I see as extremely overrated. Green Bay will be reliant on the running game to keep them in this one, but that’s not a recipe for keeping pace with a high-powered Cardinals offense. There’s just no way to prepare for the absence of key players like this on a short week, and the 3-point line move towards Arizona reflects what the Packers are up against.

I see the Cardinals winning comfortably tonight and love only needing them to win the game for this bet.

Troy @ Coastal Carolina -11: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2

How this Coastal Carolina team bounces back after a tough loss to App State last week is a big question. Fortunately, they have a fairly weak opponent to figure it out against. The Chanticleers probably lost out on a major bowl appearance with that loss so motivation for this game is tough to judge, but the talent gap is not.

Troy does not have the offense to keep up with what is still an elite Coastal attack. The Trojans are too slow-paced, low-scoring, and inefficient on offense. They rank 93rd in the country for yards-per-point and 103rd in points-per-play, while Coastal is top-10 in both. And the last time we saw Coastal on the surf turf, they demolished UL-Monroe by 53 points, a team that handed Troy its most lopsided loss of the season. This tease gets through several key numbers to well under two touchdowns, and I see Coastal covering it with ease against an overmatched opponent.

Degenerates

NFL Arizona Cardinals Team Total Over 28.5 (-110): 7:20 PM CT on FOX

The Packers' defense has been pretty solid for them this season, ranking 7th in the NFL in points allowed at 20.8 per game. But it’s come against Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ben Roethlisberger, Justin Fields, and Taylor Heinicke. To call that mediocre competition might be putting it too nicely.

Tonight they get leading MVP candidate Kyler Murray and a Cardinals team putting up 32.1 PPG. I think they’re primed to get exposed. My concern is that Murray and the Cardinals got banged up last week and could take it a little easier in this game, so for that reason I’ll leave it as a degenerate play. But if this offense keeps its foot on the gas, they can fly over this total with ease.

Tiny Nick is 420-323 ATS (+90.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.