Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/28

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Georgia @ Florida +21.5: 2:30 PM CT on CBS

Georgia will be attending the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party without tight end Brock Bowers, arguably the country’s most dominant offensive weapon. I don’t think that absence is being properly priced into the number today, as he’s impossible for the Bulldogs to simply replace even with all their talent.

Georgia is still being priced as a heavy favorite thanks to their number one ranking and 7-0 record, but let’s not forget this team is just 1-6 ATS thanks to all those inflated numbers. Florida definitely has the ability to stay competitive in this game, and being able to get a home underdog with a 3-touchdown cushion on the tease is too good to pass up.

Oregon @ Utah +13.5: 2:30 PM CT on FOX

Ok Pac12, time to cannibalize yourself and throw away CFP hopes. It’s an annual tradition at this point, and the team most commonly associated with it seems to be Utah. When you give Utes coach Kyle Whittingham more than 4 points he’s a dangerous dog, going 25-13 ATS in his career, so being able to pad this number with 7 extra points makes it very appealing.

I’ve tried fading Oregon once already this year and it bit me, but that was against a pitiful Stanford team, not this Utes squad that seems to be figuring things out despite the absence of Cam Rising. But QB Bryson Barnes has been solid, and Sione Vaki playing both ways has awoken the Utah offense. The history of Bo Nix visiting ranked teams should make Oregon fans worry, so I’ll take this big number with another home dog in what should be a grind of a game.

Air Force @ Colorado State +21.5: 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

The home underdog trifecta wraps up with another rivalry where the home team gets a big cushion in a low-total game. That’s a solid system in general for college football betting, and despite how good Air Force looks, I don’t know that they can run away like this on the road. The Falcons have always been much better at home, and if this wasn’t in Fort Collins I’d be looking the other way, but CSU has some advantages here.

Colorado State has been extremely competitive since their opening blowout loss, they have a lot of momentum, and are extremely well-coached. The weakness for the Rams is in the secondary, and even though Air Force has thrown more lately, I don’t see it being enough to create a blowout here given the cautious nature of their coaching staff. Undefeated and ranked Air Force is a good story but it inflates their number here, and being able to tease it further has me backing CSU tonight.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Vanderbilt/Ole Miss Over 63 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on SEC Network

You have to love this Vanderbilt team going undefeated to the over on the season so far, one of only two teams in the whole country to do so. It’s all on the defense that’s 118th nationally in opponent yards per point, which illustrates just how easy it is to move the ball into scoring range against the Commodores. Even lower-tier offenses are scoring at will against Vandy, who’s allowing 37.4 PPG to FBS opponents and has seen their SEC foes all score at least 37 on them.

Ole Miss is not going to miss the opportunity to shred this bad defense, as Lane Kiffin loves keeping his foot on the gas. Their ability to keep a balanced attack will have no trouble against the Commodores who struggle in all phases. But the Rebels have their own defensive issues, especially against the pass which is the only thing Vandy does well. Ole Miss still has thin CFP hopes if everything goes their way, so I think they run this up and cash the over in the process.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Ohio State @ Wisconsin +14.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBC

Have you ever been to Madison on Halloween weekend? Things get weird....like needing riot police weird. Add in a night football game on national TV against the third-ranked team in the country, and we should be headed for new levels of weirdness.

Camp Randall is going to be a madhouse for this game, putting the Buckeyes in a tough situational spot. The last time Ohio State faced that kind of scenario they barely pulled out a victory at Notre Dame. While I have more respect for the Irish than the Badgers, this is a big number for OSU to cover.

Too big in my opinion for a team led by the least impressive QB the program has had in some time, as Kyle McCord just doesn’t scare me. The Buckeye defense is elite, no question about it, but I think that creates a low-scoring game here. So getting more than two touchdowns with a solid home team in a wild environment has me backing the Badgers tonight.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Colorado/UCLA Over 61 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ABC

Let’s not get too excited about some of the defensive numbers we’re seeing from this UCLA team. The Bruins are 11th in scoring defense and 18th in opponent yards per point, stats that I believe are really holding this total down. But they’ve played a Charmin-soft schedule of opposing offenses, and their loss at Oregon State where they gave up 36 should be the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

The Bruins have to face a rested Colorado team here that can score in bunches and will test the UCLA secondary. And putting a Chip Kelly offense up against this Swiss cheese Buffaloes defense should be a recipe for tons of points. The Buffs have been gashed by both great and awful offenses in recent weeks, so I’m expecting something of a typical Pac12 shootout that pushes past an undervalued total.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Washington State Team Total Under 28.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network

I wouldn’t take the points with this Arizona State team that always seems to be getting in its own way, but I do believe they’ll have some amount of success tonight. That success should come on defense, which has turned into the strength of the Sun Devils in recent weeks, holding their last 3 opponents under this number. Included in that stretch are two elite offenses from Colorado and Washington, so ASU definitely has something going on that side of the ball. And the collapse appears to be real for Washington State, as the Cougars have failed to reach this total in 3 straight as QB Cam Ward comes back to earth. Putting Wazzu on the road against a hot defense should further that streak, and I see the Cougars falling short of this fairly big number.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) San Jose State/Hawaii Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 PM CT on Spectrum

When I first saw this total set in the 50’s I immediately assumed bad weather was headed for Honolulu. But that’s not the case as it will be ideal conditions for football tonight, and should provide for a late-night bailout over.

I really like the opportunity for San Jose State to continue impressing offensively, especially with QB Chevan Cordeiro returning to Hawaii. The Spartans have topped 40 points in consecutive games, taking advantage of bad defenses which should be the case again tonight. Hawaii has allowed 40-plus in 3 straight as their defense predictably falls apart.

But the Rainbow Warriors are also having success offensively behind QB Brayden Shager who has put up good numbers playing from behind in those blowouts. They should be in catch-up mode again tonight as they’ve only held one FBS opponent under 35 points this year. If they give up 40-plus again, this total becomes very attainable and I think it goes over no matter what.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1555-1398 ATS (+76.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.