Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/27

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit Each) Tom Brady Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-110) & Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

The problem for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is not in the passing game necessarily, as Brady has been slinging it like crazy lately. If he didn’t have to scream at his offensive line, they might actually put up points. But this team essentially refuses to run the ball, all the way down to 31st in rush attempts per game, so the opportunity will be there for Brady to hit these overs.

The ageless wonder has attempted 47 passes per game since Week 3, and gone over this yardage total in 3 of those 5 games. And that’s despite having very little success in the points department. So regardless of whether this is a high or low-scoring game, the Bucs should be looking to air it out on a suspect Baltimore pass defense, getting Brady over these prop totals.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Baltimore Ravens First Half Moneyline (+105)

This is based on simply not being able to trust the Buccaneers offense to finish drives. They’re able to pile up yardage, especially through the air, but just can’t put the ball in the end zone. That’s been particularly true early in games, as Tampa is 29th in first-half scoring and has a minus-1.6 average first-half margin.

Meanwhile, Baltimore is top-6 for points both scored and allowed in the first half, with a plus-6.4 average margin. The issue for the Ravens is late collapses, not early leads, so I’ll count on them to take another one here.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Luka Doncic Over 48.5 PAR (Points+Assists+Rebounds) (-110): 6:30 PM CT on NBATV

This number has ticked up a point from when I took it on Tuesday, but I still have no problem backing the over. It was an easy cash for Doncic against a much better defensive team in New Orleans than he’ll see tonight. Plus, the Brooklyn Nets are on a back-to-back with travel, so an already poor defense should be a prime victim.

Their past 3 games have seen Brooklyn allow the opponent’s star to eclipse this total while averaging 58.3 on the prop. With the national TV game angle also viable here, I see tonight being no different for Doncic, whose season average is 2.8 PAR above this number.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat/Golden State Warriors Over 226.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBATV

I’m banking on some fairly solid trends here for the Miami Heat that I hope can carry over into this season. Last year’s squad was one of the best in the NBA at cashing overs on no rest, hitting at 71.4% in that situational split. And in the past 23 games where Miami is on the second leg of a road back-to-back, the over has hit at a 65.2% clip.

So that’s good news from the Miami side of things, and shouldn’t dissuade anyone from backing Golden State to cruise past another total. The Warriors have hit the over in every game, beating the total by 16.1 points on average. The defense has fallen on its face, with the Warriors now allowing the most points in the league, and surrendering 70-plus in their past 3 first halves.

The Heat offense broke out a bit last night in Portland, so they should be able to capitalize on this porous defense. But with Golden State able to score on anyone, this should be a game that flies over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 911-759 ATS (+82.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.