Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/26

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills -2.5

Last week’s ugly Bills game gives them losses to Zach Wilson and Mac Jones this year, not exactly a great sign for this team. But embarrassment typically motivates Buffalo to great things the next week, and there is certainly blowout potential here. That’s why I’d rather tease them down than Tampa up, even though it would give the Bucs a two-touchdown cushion.

If the 28-point blowout of Las Vegas after losing to Zach Wilson is any guide, then the Bills are in line for a strong bounce back here. Even though Buffalo’s offense has looked rough in three straight games, they should be able to take advantage of a Bucs secondary that’s been their biggest weakness on defense. I also have little confidence in a Tampa offense with Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin both banged up. While the actual spread of this game is unplayable, I’m very comfortable asking Buffalo to win by a field goal.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Buffalo Bills Under 49.5

The Bills offense is certainly struggling lately, averaging just 19.7 PPG the past 3 weeks, but this is mostly about the ugliness of Tampa’s offense. The Bucs are 27th in scoring this year at 17.2 PPG, and have only had one game where the offense accounted for more than 20 points. They simply haven’t been able to run the ball, and are therefore unable to exploit Buffalo’s biggest vulnerability on defense. The Bills might hang a big number here in the bounce back spot, but don’t count on a Tampa offense with injury issues to push this game above the key number this is teased to.

Thursday Night Football Bonus Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

(0.25 Unit) – Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown (+110)

(0.5 Unit) – Rachaad White Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

(0.5 Unit) – Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100)

NBA (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks -2 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

I’m somewhat buying into the narrative and hype surrounding Milwaukee now that it’s Dame Time and they’ve signed Giannis Antetokounmpo to an extension. It’s been a defining aspect of the Bucks in recent years to start fast, ranking second in average first quarter margin last season after leading the NBA for that stat in 2021. So with plenty of excitement in the arena for this game, I would expect them to get out to a strong start again tonight. With the 76ers dealing with the distraction of the James Harden saga, I don’t see them being able to match the early energy of Milwaukee here, and should fall behind after a quarter.

Bonus Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

(0.5 Unit) – Joel Embiid Over 38.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)

(0.25 Unit) – Brook Lopez Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+150)

Degenerates

NBA Phoenix Suns/LA Lakers Under 224 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

I was liking the under in this game last night when it was sitting 5 points higher than it is now. Then Bradley Beal was confirmed out and it dropped, but there may still be some value in this number. I think the Lakers will be a little sluggish after Tuesday’s game in elevation. They did not look sharp offensively, with the same old three-point shooting woes from last season showing up again.

I’m also not sold on Phoenix’s offense in general, with their reliance on mid-range jumpers likely to cause some ugly scoring nights this year. With Kevin Durant also not looking good on Tuesday, neither of these offenses scare me too much and I’m willing to take a shot on the under here.

Tiny Nick is 1550-1393 ATS (+76.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.