Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/25

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Naz Reid Over 16.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Who doesn’t love Naz Reid? It’s a minor miracle that the Wolves were able to sign him long term, but I expect that contract to be paying dividends right away. I think he starts the season with a strong game against a Toronto team without a lot of talent down low in their second unit.

If Naz picks up where he left off last season, this number is very attainable since he was averaging 23.1 on this prop post All-Star break before getting hurt. He also averaged 20.5 PAR in the two games against the Raptors last season despite limited minutes. With a strong preseason where he went over this number in all 4 games, I think this prop looks like stealing.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Charlotte Hornets Over 236 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

A whole lot of value has been sucked out of this total that opened a full 6 points lower than it stands today. But I still have to look to the over given the style that these teams should play, plus the smart money continuing to push it up without any hesitation. Neither squad is too interested in defense, particularly Atlanta in Quin Snyder’s system. They were both lower-tier teams for defensive efficiency last season, with the Hawks being one of the worst after Snyder took over.

And both teams have the offensive firepower to take advantage, especially with a healthier roster for Charlotte this year. The Hornets were a top-5 offensive team in 2021 before injuries marred their season last year, and I expect a return to that form. Given that these teams averaged 247 points in their meetings last year, I understand the line movement here and I’m on board that we’ll see a shootout to start the season.

NCAA Football (0.25 Unit) Sam Houston State Team Total Over 19.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Sam Houston’s start to FBS play has not gone well, as an 0-7 record obviously indicates. And what stood out about the Bearkats early in the season has not been the case lately for them. The first few games were defined by strong defense and an anemic offense, but that has somewhat flipped and I don’t think the change is properly priced into this number.

It hasn’t been pretty, but the past 4 games for SHSU has seen them average 21.0 PPG as QB Keegan Shoemaker has started to figure a few things out. I think things get easier tonight against UTEP who is allowing 28.1 PPG to their FBS opponents, and it’s not an impressive list of teams either. The Miners are also all the way down at 72nd in the key metric of opponent yards per point, so even the Bearkat offense will be able to move the ball here. Sam Houston is finally favored, and should take advantage of an extremely low game total to cash the over on this isolated number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1549-1391 ATS (+76.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.