Locks
NBA (1 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Tonight’s line is giving us a full two-point discount from the closing number of Saturday night’s Timberwolves victory, and I’m happily trusting Minnesota again here.
A good number of things went wrong for the Wolves in that game, yet they still came away with a fairly convincing victory. From having Karl-Anthony Towns foul out, to only managing 15 points in the 3rd quarter, to getting outscored by 12 points at the free-throw line, Minnesota was very close to a dominant win in that game. I expect the Wolves to clean up some of their sloppy play from that game, shoot much better, and keep their best player out of foul trouble.
It’s a small sample size, but the Wolves actually lead the NBA in defensive rating too. A continuation of that against this weak Pelicans team will get Minnesota an easy win and cover at this discounted number.
NBA (1 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Indiana Pacers Over 230 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN
This number is on the rise and with good reason, as both of these teams can fill it up while defense has been lacking so far this season.
In their six combined games this season, the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers are 5-1 over this number. Both teams are in the top eight for points per game, while also bottom eight for points allowed, but haven’t exactly faced any teams playing at an elite level offensively. That changes here as both squads like to play at a higher tempo and take a lot of shots, particularly from deep.
It’s also important to note that Brook Lopez will miss this game. That leaves little to no rim protection against the Indiana frontcourt duo of Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis, who should get plenty of easy buckets as a result.
This matchup was one of the highest-scoring in the NBA last season, going 3-0 over the total and averaging 256 points per game. The style of play that led to those numbers has carried over into this season, and I see another easy over in this one.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 419-318 ATS (+94.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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