Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/21

Locks

NCAA Football (0.25 Unit) Minnesota/Iowa Under 31 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on NBC

So low, so funny, you just have to go with the under here and congratulate these offenses if they actually get out of their own way for once. I'm not a believer that they will however, and this game has something like 13-10 written all over it.

Anyone unfamiliar with Iowa’s offensive futility is living under a rock, as the Hawkeyes are down to dead last nationally in Success Rate. With a backup QB and missing their only two legitimate receiving options in both starting tight ends, they just won't be able to attack a Minnesota secondary that's been vulnerable all year.

This will be a running game all day, but with Iowa’s rush offense that's 125th in EPA going nowhere against a Gopher defense expecting top LB Cody Lindenberg back. Meanwhile, Minnesota should have starting RB Darius Taylor back for their glacially slow offense. Zero explosive ability by either team plus very strong defense should keep this one as ugly as they get.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Washington St/Oregon 1st Half Over 31.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

Oregon is going to be in a foul mood here after their close loss at Washington last week. That's bad news for the other team to their north, as the Cougars visit today. The last time Oregon looked to make a statement they stomped Colorado at home, and this Wazzu defense is similarly struggling. The Cougars got obliterated last week and can't stop anything, so don't be surprised to see the Ducks eclipse this total themselves.

But I think we'll see a bounce back from the Washington St offense here. They can't do much worse than last week when they scored on their first possession and that was it. The Oregon defense has proven to be vulnerable, and Cam Ward should be in line for a bounce back with time to stew and prepare. I want the first half here with the possibility of an Oregon blowout reducing second half scoring, so look for both offenses to start hot.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1551-1392 ATS (+79.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks