Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/19

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 First Quarter (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Okay, it’s true, I’m excited that Timberwolves basketball is back. But this team should also come out with a purpose tonight after the offseason they just had. They also have an opponent in the Thunder that should be tanking this season for the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.

And if any of last season’s trends carry over to this year, the Wolves should be in a great spot early. They were the highest-scoring first-quarter team last season, while OKC was dead last. Minnesota was also the third-best team in average first-quarter margin, while OKC was again dead last. Behind what should be a hyped Target Center crowd, I see the Wolves jumping out early on an inferior opponent.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Washington Wizards -1 @ Indiana Pacers (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

Speaking of teams right in the middle of the Wembanyama sweepstakes, this Pacers team should end up one of the worst in the league. It may require them to sell off some key pieces, but I’m not hopeful for their chances to start this season either.

Washington should be greatly improved this year behind a healthy Bradley Beal and offseason acquisitions of Monte Morris and Will Barton. That adds a good deal of scoring punch that should take advantage of one of the worst defenses in the league. This very well might be a shootout, but I’ll take a Wizards team with far better offensive depth to knock off a poor defensive team.

NBA (0.25 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans/Brooklyn Nets Over 230.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on YES

Some of this number is reflective of public perception of these teams, particularly Brooklyn. But are we really going to see the Nets suddenly decide this is the season to play good defense? I’ll believe that when I see it. In the meantime, I’ll trust them to continue getting into high-scoring games.

This is a matchup well-suited to become a shootout, with exciting players up and down both rosters who can score from anywhere (well, not Ben Simmons, but you get my point). I’m excited to see what a healthy Zion Williamson adds to an intriguing Pelicans squad. For tonight, I’d expect his presence to only add to what should be an open-floor game with lots of quick, transition scoring. That pace and the extra possessions should be the keys in getting over a high total here.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/San Antonio Spurs Over 224 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

Without point guard LaMelo Ball, this Charlotte team could be in for a rough time, but not as rough as the Spurs. The roster in San Antonio is about as thin as it gets with this team starting from scratch. However, that gives us two bad teams squaring off. I fully believe that bad rosters can still score at a high level, especially with them also playing bad defense, and that should be the story tonight.

These teams are fast-paced by nature, ranking fifth and sixth last season in possessions per game. In recent years, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich has embraced a style that looks more like a pick-up game, and should again with this bad roster. This is a low total for a style of game like that, no doubt being held down by low expectations for both teams. But with enough poor defense, these teams should find enough buckets to make it over the total.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings -2 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

The number is telling you something in this game as the Kings find themselves favored over a public team. Most people would think of Portland and immediately think of Damian Lillard being able to carry his team to victory, but I just don’t think there are enough pieces around him right now.

Meanwhile, years of struggle might finally be turning around for Sacramento, and I think they have the better, deeper, and healthier roster. With the Kings opening as a favorite here and taking money, they’re undoubtedly the sharp side. I’m inclined to agree, and this is a small price to back them in starting the season off right.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Mavericks +5 @ Phoenix Suns (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

The last time we saw these teams squaring off, Luka Doncic was making a superhuman effort to knock off the Suns in the Western Conference semifinals. This Phoenix team hasn’t changed much from the version that choked a 2-0 series lead back in May, but Dallas certainly has. Despite losing Jalen Brunson, I’d say the change has been for the better, improving their depth up front and getting Tim Hardaway Jr. back from injury.

While Phoenix might have revenge on their minds tonight, I think the Suns just don’t match up well with Dallas, and certainly won’t against this improved version. Call me a victim of betting on what I saw last, but this number is just too big for the matchup on the floor. Dallas has also been getting plenty of steam in the market against a public Suns squad, so I’ll take the points here in what should be a tight game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 898-750 ATS (+79.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.