Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/17

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Mike Boone Over 44.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

Much has been made of Russell Wilson’s shoulder injury coming into this game, and with Melvin Gordon also banged up, someone is going to need to pick up the slack for the Denver Broncos. That should be Mike Boone, who has looked excellent in the limited workload he’s been given. All he seems to do is pick up yardage in bunches, averaging 5.8 yards per carry and 11.6 yards per reception this season.

In a fairly similar situation last week, Boone found his way to 85 total yards against a much better Indianapolis Colts defense. The Los Angeles Chargers are allowing the ninth-most rushing yards per game and are 30th in production allowed to opposing running backs. Los Angeles has allowed the opposing lead running back to average 116 rushing-plus-receiving yards per game this season. Even if Gordon plays, there’s plenty of production to be had for Boone, and I see him getting over this total with ease.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Austin Ekeler Over 101.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

Austin Ekeler has been on an absolute tear in the past two weeks, and while this total reflects that production level, I simply can’t do anything but take the over again. With 109 and 199 total yards in the last two games, Ekeler is showing why he should be the focus of this offense, and that should continue tonight against Denver.

This Broncos defense is banged up at several positions and was never strong against the run to begin with. They were shredded by Josh Jacobs the last time they faced a team’s true lead running back, and Ekeler is certainly a more skilled back overall. He should also get plenty of work in the passing game as an outlet for Justin Herbert, as Denver’s biggest strength is the pass rush. That should add up to another strong game for Ekeler and third straight over this prop total.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Jerry Jeudy Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

Jerry Jeudy has all the talent in the world, but he has definitely struggled in this offense with its very public futility. For the former first-rounder to have just 14 receptions on the season is mind-boggling, and I see another mild output from him tonight. Jeudy is actually 3-2 over this number on the season, but that record is deceiving due to some long receptions including in overtime last week.

The bottom line here is that Jeudy’s 18% target share in this offense is very underwhelming and not conducive to high levels of production. Plus he has a tough matchup tonight, as the Chargers are the best in the league in DVOA against opposing No. 2 wide receivers. Add in Russell Wilson’s shoulder issue creating a bigger focus on the run game, and I see Jeudy falling short of this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 898-745 ATS (+81.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.