Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/08

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) NY Giants/Miami Dolphins 1st Quarter Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

If the Dolphins have two possessions in the first quarter of this game, they’ll probably do this on their own. This is the kind of team that takes losses like they had to Buffalo personally, with a coach that looks like he’s playing Madden. The simple fact is that Miami’s first quarters this season have averaged 14.8 points, with the only under coming against the non-functional Patriots offense. The Giants look awful after Monday night’s loss, but I think they can contribute on scripted plays against a suspect Dolphins defense. That should lead to an early over on a good number here.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Houston Texans +2.5 @ Atlanta Falcons (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I’m absolutely fading Desmond Ridder until the wheels fall off. While the valuation has shifted dramatically on both of these teams, especially having the Texans as a minimal road underdog, I’m buying in on CJ Stroud and this confident squad. The Falcons have finally looked like they’re supposed to look the past couple weeks, with Ridder not being able to get hidden by the offensive system. They’re also in a very tough spot coming back from London, as teams that don’t take a bye the next week have all found themselves tied or trailing in the 4th quarter. This might be a close one, but I have no confidence in Atlanta and Ridder at this point so I’ll take the dog with the points.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Houston Texans +0.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Perhaps the best way to fade Ridder is in the first half, where he’s 0-8 against the first half spread in his NFL career. The Falcons are missing the first half cover by an average 6.6 point margin in those games, so it’s not even close. Atlanta has only averaged 6.1 points in first halves with Ridder, and adding in the travel spot has me looking for the Texans to lead at the break.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Texans Team Total Over 19.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

I just don’t understand why the Falcons didn’t take a bye after playing overseas. It’s organizational malpractice since the league offers you the choice, and there’s history to suggest it causes problems. When the previous 9 teams have done that, their opponent is 7-2 over their respective team total. With how good Stroud has looked so far, this confident offense should find plenty of success today.

NFL (0.75 Unit) New Orleans Saints/New England Patriots Under 40 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

I can’t look at these offenses and see anything but futility all day long. That has me staying far away from getting involved with who wins or covers, but I really like the under here. It helps that the Saints are on a 13-1 under run, and these teams are a combined 7-1 to the under this season. There’s no way Derek Carr is healthy, and trotting out a vulnerable quarterback against a Belichick defense off an embarrassing loss spells trouble. But Mac Jones is still awful and the Saints defense is stout against the run which New England will try to lean on. I see a slow-paced game with plenty of ugly football, and that screams under to me.

NFL (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions -3: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

This one is pretty simple. The Lions aren’t going to lose this game at home to a Carolina team that has been lost all year. The Lions are for real and it’s time we take advantage of that. Bryce Young should have a long day in Detroit.

Dallas Cowboys +10 @ San Francisco 49ers: 7:20 PM CT on NBC

It’s my Cowboys, what do you expect me to do? With the 49ers moving up to 4-point favorites, that makes this teased number a great one considering how close these teams have played recently. Their two playoff meetings in each of the past two seasons have seen San Fran win by one possession, which they might do again, but I don’t see double digits happening. I’ll have plenty of action on Dallas in a lot of different ways because I’m a little sick, but I genuinely believe that the number here dictates backing the Cowboys to keep it to single digits.

NFL Prop Bets

(0.5 Unit): Breece Hall Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

(0.75 Unit) Justin Jefferson Over 104.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

(0.75 Unit) Bryce Young Over 31.5 Attempts (-110)

(0.5 Unit) Kirk Cousins Over 26.5 Completions (-110)

(0.75 Unit) Dak Prescott Over 23.5 Completions (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1547-1388 ATS (+79.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks