Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/07

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Washington St +3.5 @ UCLA (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network

This number is fishy, kind of in both directions actually, but I’m taking the better team with more experience and more to play for. Despite their 13th ranking in the AP poll, this Washington State team continues to fly under the radar. I think they’ve been taking that personally, along with being left out of the realignment musical chairs. But this team has a ton of talent, especially with Cam Ward at quarterback.

All they want to do is throw the football, ranking 2nd nationally to their in-state counterparts with 406 passing yards per game. The Cougars will avoid UCLA’s defensive strength of run defense, while their own strong defensive front slows down Bruins freshman phenom Dante Moore. Those freshman struggles finally hit Moore in his last game against a decent defense, and I’m not sold on him yet in a high-leverage game like this. Chip Kelly is not great at covering numbers in the Rose Bowl, so I’ll take the points here in what should be a good game.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Alabama/Texas A&M Under 46.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on CBS

I feel as though the wrong team is favored here with Alabama laying the shortest of numbers, as I’m not sold on the Tide overall. I am sold on their improving defense however, which has held their two SEC opponents to 27 total points, including the elite Ole Miss attack. Both of those teams have much more to offer than A&M does on offense, particularly with the Aggies needing their backup quarterback to start again.

But Texas A&M is looking just as excellent defensively as is the norm under Jimbo Fisher. This series has produced some shootouts in recent years, but those rosters were much different than this year. The struggles of Jalen Milroe to throw the ball makes Alabama look nothing like what they’d been spoiled with at QB for years. If Milroe is forced to rely on his legs, this excellent A&M run defense will be able to shut the Tide down. I think that makes for a slugfest here where two excellent defensive-minded head coaches rely on their strengths.

NCAA Football (0.25 Unit) Texas State/Louisiana Over 68.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPNU

At this big of a number it’s tough to get to the over, but it’s even tougher for me to make a case for the under here. These two teams are really struggling on defense, and fortunately for over bettors, both have the firepower to take advantage. I’m a big fan of how TJ Finley is being used to run the Texas State offense, and they’ve been tearing through opponents.

The Bobcats are also playing at the 14th-fastest pace, which Louisiana has a lot of trouble with. The Ragin’ Cajuns have given up a lot of points to bad offenses lately, so this excellent unit should torch them. But Texas State can’t stop much either, especially through the air, so they should fuel a shootout on both sides of the ball today.

NCAA Football (0.25 Unit) Arkansas St +16 @ Troy (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m trying to capitalize on what I think is still a severely undervalued Arkansas State team. The power rating on the Red Wolves hasn’t shifted enough to account for the upgrade at quarterback with Jaylen Raynor taking over. The market still sees a team that lost its first two games by a combined score of 110-3, but the freshman has led them to three straight wins as he’s completely changed the offense. Troy has always been a solid program, but I don’t think they warrant laying this big a number against a revived opponent, so I’ll take the points with the surging and confident Red Wolves.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Kentucky/Georgia Over 47.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

This Georgia defense isn’t what it was when it led them to consecutive national titles. I guess having everyone get drafted will do that, and so far they haven’t bounced back, especially against the run. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, the absolute best thing Kentucky does is run the ball and run it explosively.

Big runs out of the Wildcats should get them scoring opportunities, and Georgia’s defense is on pace to post their worst Points per Opportunity mark in years. But I still think the Bulldogs offense is on an upward trajectory, and will face a very untested Kentucky defense. While this will probably be a slower-paced game with lots of running, I think we see enough explosiveness and opportunities to get over the low number.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Notre Dame @ Louisville +6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ABC

I think by the end of the season we’ll see Louisville fall from the heights they’re currently at, but not tonight. This is just too big of a spot for the Cardinals, getting a national TV home game against such a big program. The energy around the game should keep them competitive on its own, and I have questions about the energy Notre Dame will bring.

This is the seventh straight week for the Irish, including opening the season in Ireland. After last week’s incredible comeback following the last-second loss to Ohio State, what does this team have left in the tank? A tough road environment against a confident and well-coached team should make things difficult, and even if the Irish pull it out I don’t think it will be by margin.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1544-1385 ATS (+79.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.