Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/06

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Kansas State Team Total Over 32.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

This Wildcats team might not go out looking to score a ton of points, but their offense is so strong and efficient that they do it anyway. They should let Will Howard turn it loose through the air tonight against an Oklahoma State team that is really struggling defensively.

The Cowboys are 123rd in Pass Success allowed, 104th in PFF’s coverage grade, and 131st in tackling. That’s not just bad, it’s awful. That's why the Cowboys have allowed 33 points to South Alabama and 34 to my Cyclones in their past two games, a couple of suspect offenses. There’s also a massive discrepancy in finishing drives, as K-State is 5th in capitalizing on scoring chances, while the Cowboys are 120th in preventing those opportunities from being cashed in.

Oklahoma State’s offense is also struggling but playing at a very fast tempo, so that will maximize possessions for the Wildcats. I think they take advantage of almost every chance they get, and a team that’s already hung 40-plus three times will be around that number again tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1544-1385 ATS (+79.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.