Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/05

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders PICK

I have some concerns with the Commanders laying a whole touchdown in this game, as that puts their valuation fairly out of whack. They’ve gotten to play some pretty awful teams this year in Arizona and Denver, just sneaking by both squads. But they did secure the wins and that’s what counts, so today against probably the league’s worst team that’s all I’m going to ask of them.

There’s just no case to back Chicago at all, especially when I can go against them at a pick-em number. This team had an opportunity to get off the mat against Denver last week and blew a 28-7 lead, so concerns about the Bears having no fight left have to be considered. The defense can’t stop a nosebleed, with now 14 consecutive games of allowing 25-plus points. I think that’s ultimately the difference here, as even if Washington needs to pull this out late for some reason, Chicago’s defense isn’t stopping them.

Chicago Bears/Washington Commanders Over 38.5

I kind of like the over at 44.5 in this game, and so does the market as it’s seen some sharp attention, but getting a 6-point discount is the better way to go. This total becomes very attainable with Chicago’s defense involved, as giving up 25-plus in 14 straight games and allowing 34.3 so far this season creates a high floor for scoring.

Washington has been very good at exploiting poor secondaries in recent weeks, and the Bears have the worst one they’ve seen yet so they’ll probably extend that streak for Chicago. But the Commanders are also struggling defensively, allowing 30-plus in 3 straight weeks as fans call for Jack Del Rio’s job. I really don’t think Justin Fields is the problem in Chicago, and he should be able to engineer enough scoring to help get this over the discounted total.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Justin Fields Over 27.5 Passing Attempts (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

This is a line that makes very little sense to me, seemingly putting too much stock in Fields running the ball as opposed to throwing. But his running hasn’t overshadowed his passing much at all this year, as he’s only gone under this attempts number in the game against Kansas City that got completely sideways. The strength of the Washington defense is up front, so I don’t see Fields challenging that with his legs. Instead, look for him to be throwing consistently all night and especially when the Bears inevitably find themselves playing catch-up.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): DJ Moore Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

If Fields is going to throw a lot in this game, then Moore is going to be the beneficiary of quite a lot of it. Washington’s secondary was abused by the talented Eagles receivers last week and Moore is equally as talented, plus that unit has struggled all year. With Moore logging 3 straight high-target games and eclipsing 100 yards in 2 of them, the effort to get him involved in the offense is obvious and should result in getting over this total.

NFL (0.25 Unit) Washington Commanders Team Total Over 25.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

I just don’t see how that streak of allowing over 25 points doesn’t continue for Chicago tonight. Like I mentioned, I think this team is close to giving up, especially on defense where the talent cupboard is still looking bare. I think Washington turns Sam Howell loose tonight to build his confidence for a tough stretch run this season. Seeing as how Chicago is actually much better against the run, letting Howell sling it with his excellent receiving corps is the best strategy and should lead to lots of scoring for the home team.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1542-1384 ATS (+79.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.