Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/02

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Seattle Seahawks -2 @ NY Giants (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

I was surprised to see the Giants open as favorites for this game, but the market has corrected that as we reach game day. A move through zero, on a standalone game, that flips the road team to the favorite is a pretty clear sign of smart money coming in on Seattle here. The line continuing to tick up to this spot also signals that Saquon Barkley is likely to remain out with his ankle injury.

Without Barkley available, I think the Giants will struggle against a defense that can focus on the pass. The Seahawks will also get Jamal Adams back for this game in what seems like forever, so his presence should really help defend the no-name receiver group for New York. And with the Giants sending tons of pressure, the elite Seattle receiving trio should find plenty of chunk plays. That should all add up to Daniel Jones continuing to collapse in primetime, as he is 1-12 straight up including 0-5 at home in his career.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Daniel Jones Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

The strength of Seattle’s defense is against the run, which I don’t see the Giants trying to attack without Barkley anyway. But a banged-up Seahawks secondary should be where New York tries to find advantages tonight. That makes this number too low for a quarterback who I expect to be playing from behind in a game with a high total. Jones doesn’t need to complete a ton of passes to his bargain basement receiving corps, just rack up the attempts in a pass-heavy game script.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1539-1384 ATS (+77.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.