Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/01

Locks

NFL (2 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles -2.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

You just have to tease the Eagles here, even though they’re so good against the spread at home. In a divisional game, I prefer just asking Philly to win this one instead of covering essentially double digits. The Eagles looked on Monday night like they’re figuring out how to impose their will on the thin NFC, and they’ll have plenty of advantages in this matchup. The big key for me is that Jalen Hurts is 24-3 straight up when the Eagles are favored by at least a field goal, and getting this number down closer to just a win is the best way to exploit that trend.

Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 @ NY Jets: 7:20 PM CT on NBC

If you don’t know by now that the Chiefs don’t cover these big, inflated numbers, then I don’t know where you’ve been. But when you make Patrick Mahomes a favorite of a field goal or less, he’s going to come through for you. He also comes through to win the game when listed as a big favorite, going 22-2 straight up as a double digit favorite. The handicap here is as simple as it gets: the Chiefs have the best quarterback in the NFL, and the Jets have the worst. New York’s defense could keep this closer than expected, but I’ll take Mahomes to get them at least a field goal victory.

Bonus Bets (0.25 Unit Each) Philadelphia Eagles -9 & Kansas City Chiefs -8.5

These are such mismatches that the full-game spreads are worth a sprinkle. I don’t recommend getting in this habit, but these games have blowout potential.

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Baltimore Ravens/Cleveland Browns Under 45.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

The Browns are the best defense in the league and it’s not close. They’ll lean on that again today, and should have success holding down a Ravens offense with plenty of injury issues. But the injury bug is biting Cleveland pretty hard as well, with Deshaun Watson now in doubt for this game after losing Nick Chubb two weeks ago. The total is dropping as a result, but being able to move it back up above the key number of 45 is too good to pass up for what should be a grind of a game.

Miami Dolphins/Buffalo Bills Over 46.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

I look at this total and see plenty of potential for it to fly over despite being an awkward number. This game has shootout written all over it, but with this tease I’m able to move it below several key totals numbers and put myself much more at ease. With Jaylen Waddle clearing concussion protocol and Jordan Poyer being out for Buffalo, offenses are going to shine. There’s almost no chance Miami has the same offensive success as last week when everything came together perfectly, but both teams have plenty of firepower to reach this highly discounted total.

Pittsburgh Steelers/Houston Texans Under 49: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

I honestly can’t believe the total is this high, as I don’t see 6 combined touchdowns from these teams. I certainly don’t see 7 of them, which is where the tease brings me. The Steelers may have appeared to get their offense on track last week against an awful Raiders defense, but the Texans are quietly playing good defensive football, especially against the run. With the Steelers incapable of getting anything going on the ground, that forces Kenny Pickett to have a big game in order for scoring to get this high. Combine that with the TJ Watt and company making life tough on a depleted Houston offensive line, and neither offense should shine today.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Denver Broncos Team Total Over 24.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

If you get your doors blown off by 50 points in the NFL, you’re probably coming out with a vengeance the next week. It helps if your upcoming opponent has arguably the worst defense in the league, and I don’t see the Bears getting any better on that side of the ball soon. Word is that tensions are building between Sean Payton and Russell Wilson, but one thing most everyone in the league can come together on is lighting up a defense that’s given up at least this many every week.

NFL (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Bucs +3.5 @ New Orleans Saints (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Let’s be real, both these teams pretty much stink. The Saints in particular are borderline unwatchable with Jameis Winston at the helm, which he will be tomorrow. They were completely inept and uncoordinated offensively once Derek Carr went out last Sunday, and I’ll take my chances that he can’t engineer a win by more than a field goal here. The Bucs always have trouble with the Saints for some reason, but I have to close my eyes and play the number here against a troubled backup quarterback.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 @ Tennessee Titans (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Monday’s win by the Bengals showed me a team determined not to let the season slip through their fingers. Even with Joe Burrow hobbled, he’s more reliable at quarterback than Ryan Tannehill who checked in at 33rd for quarterback rating last week (yeah, there are 32 NFL teams, I checked). This notorious pass funnel defense for Tennessee is not what you want to run against such an elite receiving corps. So if Cincy can keep Burrow upright, they should get a crucial win here.

NFL (1 Unit) Arizona Cardinals/SF 49ers 1st Half Over 22 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on FOX

These teams are tied for third in the NFL for first half scoring, which shouldn’t come as a surprise for San Francisco. But the Cardinals have shown a lot of fight early in games, and should be able to get on the board to contribute to this total. I also think the 49ers having extra time to prepare for this game, which they shouldn’t take lightly after Arizona’s upset win last week, will have them coming out firing early. They’re likely to want to get a solid lead established before looking ahead to next week’s big game against Dallas, and I see that leading to lots of first half points.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Arizona Cardinals +14 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

The 49ers became a covering machine as soon as they acquired Christian McCaffrey last year, so it’s scary going against them. But someone on my podcast said Josh Dobbs is for real (it me) so I’ll back up the talk here. If the 49ers pack it in late in this game in preparation for the Cowboys game, then the back door opens wide for Arizona to sneak in.

NFL Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

(0.5 Unit) Tua Tagovailoa Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

(0.5 Unit) Tua Tagovailoa Over 22.5 Completions (-110)

(0.5 Unit) Tua Tagovailoa Over 274.5 Passing Yards (-110)

(0.5 Unit) Josh Allen Over 271.5 Passing Yards (-110)

(0.5 Unit) Jaylen Waddle Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

(0.5 Unit) Dalton Kincaid Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

(1 Unit) Justin Jefferson Over 6.5 Receptions (-150)

(1 Unit) Mac Jones Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-110)

(0.75 Unit) Dak Prescott Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1530-1377 ATS (+73.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.