Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 1/15

Locks

NBA - Timberwolves/Grizzlies Over 224 (-110): 

Well, as a Minnesota Timberwolves fan I know one thing to be true, they are incapable of playing defense. Their games are 6-1 to this number in the month of January and on a night where they only scored 17 in the 4th quarter just two days ago against the same team, they still went over this number.

Karl-Anthony Towns being back just adds more offense to the mix while Dillon Brooks will probably continue his random destruction of the Wolves for an offensive outburst himself. I like some player props (D’Angelo Russell Over 22.5 Points for example) and a T-Pup win in the rubber match, but I’m rolling with the over as my lock.

Also, I hate to say it but Juancho Hernangomez and Ricky Rubio being out tonight might be addition by subtraction the way they’ve been playing lately.

NCAA Basketball - UW Green Bay/Detroit Mercy Over 148 (-110):

These are two pretty bad basketball teams, but what both are the worst at is defense. Detroit is 306th in defensive efficiency and Green Bay is 333rd, both allowing well over one point per possession. Both teams struggle to shoot the ball at a combined 41.6%, but those terrible defensive efficiency numbers allow for a very high success rate to compensate.

Let’s also look at these teams’ performances against the other awful Horizon defense in Oakland (347th in defensive efficiency). Both teams have played Oakland twice, and the four games averaged 161.3 PPG, so the bad defense versus bad defense theory holds. Plus we’ve seen Detroit score 76 against Michigan State so they can produce when opportunities are there. I like this game in the 150s or higher, so take the over.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 102-55 ATS (+46.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.