Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 1/06

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) SEMO St./Belmont Over 162 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is the conference opener for Belmont after two postponements, and I think their elite offense takes advantage of a weak defense.

The Bruins offense is a freight train when they keep the pedal down, ranking 37th in efficiency, 21st in shooting, and 14th in true shooting percentage. They should have that pedal down all game thanks to SEMO pushing it at the 38th-fastest pace in the country, coupled with a defense that’s 342nd in efficiency. The Redhawks have a couple of excellent scoring guards though, and they should be able to put up plenty of points against a Belmont defense that hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations.

SEMO has already played two conference games this season, and those have averaged 182 points. They just don’t care about defense and should find Belmont willing to play at their preferred pace. It’s an extremely high total, but one that’s justified given how I see this game being played, so I’m on the over.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Oral Roberts -4.5 @ St. Thomas (-110): 7:00 PM CT No TV

Who likes three-pointers? If you do, this is the game for you because these teams love them. St. Thomas is 1st and Oral Roberts 2nd in three-point attempts this season, so that will be the defining characteristic of this Summit League showdown.

But Oral Roberts is strangely good at defending outside the arc, ranking 64th in opponent three-point percentage. However, the Tommies struggle in that category, ranking 269th nationally. That’s a big disparity and gives the Golden Eagles an important advantage here. St. Thomas should be in a flat spot off their first-ever D1 conference win on Saturday, so I’ll lay the short number with a talented Oral team here.

Tiny Nick is 514-398 ATS (+85.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.