Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 05/01

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics -14 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

The fact that we’re even in a Game 5 is a little preposterous given how the Celtics have dominated this series for all but one game. The Heat had their black swan shooting night, but haven’t been anywhere close to competitive in the other three games where they lost by at least this margin.

The depth and offensive production woes get even worse for Miami tonight without Jaime Jaquez, so don’t expect them to score enough to keep up with Boston’s offense at home. The Celtics can mess around and win this game by double digits, but I’m sure want to keep Miami from having any glimmer of hope. That should see them bring a focused effort that turns this into a runaway, regardless of it being an elimination game.

Degenerates

NBA Dallas Mavericks @ LA Clippers +3.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

The Clippers. Are. Better. Without. Kawhi. He’s just a drag on them right now at both ends of the floor, and with him out tonight this number only reflects his absence from an overall power-rating standpoint. But just look at the two other games he’s missed in this series, where the Clippers won, covered, and held 30-point leads in the process. I’m also convinced Luka Doncic is dealing with a significant injury, and he couldn’t defend to begin with. So I have to jump on a team that looks better with this construction and is catching points at home.

Tiny Nick is 2275-2091 ATS (+87.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.