Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/28

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Golden State Warriors Over 234.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

It’s all about pace and possessions here in my opinion, both of which have actually been rising as this series goes on. Every single game in the series has had more possessions than what the fastest-paced team averaged all season, which ironically was Golden State. Even though it’s an elimination game for the Kings, I don’t see them changing their approach of trying to push the pace all game as they’re essentially married to that strategy at this point. There are too many elite scoring threats on these rosters and De’Aaron Fox looked healthy in Game 5, so if shots are dropping this should go over the total.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies@ LA Lakers -4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN

You just can’t ignore the struggles of Memphis as a road underdog this season, and I think that matters tonight. The Grizzlies are 0-16 straight up and 2-14 ATS in that situation this season with a negative 9.3 ATS margin, all of which rank worst in the league. Books have also been essentially recycling this same spread all series except for the game Ja Morant missed, and Memphis is 1-3 against that number so far. The Lakers do not want to go back to Memphis for a Game 7, so expect the maximum effort out of LeBron and company to close this series out tonight.

MLB (1 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network

This is mostly a fade of David Peterson since he’s been having a terrible month with an 8.71 ERA, and opposing teams have averaged 6 runs per game in his past 4 starts. It probably only gets worse against the Braves, who are crushing lefties like Peterson this season. Atlanta is top-3 in baseball for batting average, OPS, weighted runs created, and weighted on-base average against left-handed pitching. Since this game also has Max Fried pitching, the full-game total is held down to account for his excellence. That forces this derivative total down a little too far, and I’m liking the value on it.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Colorado Rockies Team Total Under 5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM

There is a fairly high full-game total here that’s indicative of being at Coors Field, but I don’t think we’ll get the full Coors effect in this game. I’m big on factoring in weather for April baseball, and it’s going to be low 50’s at most in Denver for this game. The weather should hold down scoring in general, and the Rockies will also struggle to put up runs against Merrill Kelly.

Colorado is below average in most categories against righties like Kelly, and 28th in weighted runs created-plus. The Rockies are also returning home here after a long road trip, and the other times they’ve done that this season they scored 1 and 3 runs against far worse pitchers than Kelly. The Rockies definitely hit and score better at home, but the weather and situational factors have me seeing a lower output tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1238-1090 ATS (+70.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.