Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/25

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets -5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on NBATV

Sorry Wolves fans, they’re not winning four in a row. A season full of frustrations should come to an end tonight, and I think it will be apparent pretty early on. What I saw from Denver on Sunday night at Target Center was a team going through the motions, knowing they can close this out at home, and it still went to overtime. I’m afraid any momentum the Wolves think they picked up will be erased in the first half here.

Denver has led at halftime of every game in this series, averaging a 9-point margin. That’s not terribly surprising for the team that was 4th in average first-half margin this season, and had the 3rd-best mark at home of plus-5.7 points. With the Minnesota rotation getting even thinner without Kyle Anderson, the Nuggets juggernaut should roll early and make this number a bargain.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics -4.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

The full-game number for this one is too big to get involved with in an elimination scenario, but I’ll rely on what Boston has done well all season. The Celtics led the NBA in average first-quarter margin this season while ranking second in first-quarter scoring. That’s why Boston has led after a quarter in every game of this series, averaging a 6.8 point lead.

It’s their ability to put up so many points with their optimal lineup that’s the key for me against a Hawks team that’s had zero answers defensively, and was 27th in first-quarter points allowed on the road this season. Atlanta will also feel the absence of Dejounte Murray tonight who has contributed so much offensively in the series. That will seriously hamper their ability to keep pace with the elite Celtics offense, and allow Boston to jump out to another big early lead.

NBA (1 Unit) Russell Westbrook Over 42.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

The same principle applies with Westbrook today as it did for Game 4 on Saturday, and there was only a very minor adjustment to this number after he easily eclipsed it. With Kawhi Leonard out again for the Clippers, Westbrook is the lone option LA has to run things through, and I think he takes full advantage. This is an opportunity for redemption for him after such an ugly divorce with the Lakers, so motivation and usage will get him over this total for the third straight game.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+105; Odds via BetMGM): 5:35 PM CT on SportsNet PT

The Dodgers are still being booked as the dominant team in the National League, and Noah Syndergaard is still being booked as a dominant pitcher. Those things are built more on perception than anything right now and don’t appear very accurate, creating a lot of value on the team that actually has the best record in the NL so far.

The Dodgers got somewhat on track in Chicago over the weekend, but still aren’t themselves and haven’t done much to support Syndergaard in his starts. LA is winless when Thor takes the mound, and he has had issues against this Pittsburgh lineup in his career.

The Pirates might be leading the NL through a combination of smoke and mirrors, but I can’t argue with the results. Their pitching has been shockingly fantastic, and Johan Oviedo is a big part of it. The righty has allowed just 2 runs in his past 3 starts and will face a Dodgers lineup that just lost hot-hitting Max Muncy. At a plus price like this, I’ll back the Buccos to take this one against an overvalued Dodgers squad.

MLB (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 4.5 (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Sun

Another day, another right-handed starter for this Tampa lineup to feast on. I thought yesterday might be the day they’d finally struggle against Jose Urquidy, but they tagged that Astros righty for 6 runs on their way to an 8-3 win. Today’s Astro righty, Luis Garcia, has had considerably more struggles overall, and I think the Rays pounce again. The number of categories Tampa leads MLB in against right-handed pitching is too long to list here, but it has me very confident that they’ll mash again tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+125; Odds via DraftKings)

If the Rays are going to beat up on more right-handed pitching tonight, then I like the chances of Drew Rasmussen to hold down Houston and create a comfortable win for them. The Tampa righty has been solid all season, especially when he enjoys the kind of run support I’m expecting here. With Tampa in home games boasting the league’s best run differential of plus-68 and going 11-3 against the run line, this plus-juice return is too good to pass up.

Soccer-EPL (0.5 Unit) Leeds United/Leicester City Over 3 (+115; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT

I know nothing about soccer (sorry, not calling it football) except that I think the ball is supposed to go in the net. But I do have a soccer guy who’s been red hot so I’m hoping to share the wealth. He tells me these teams both struggle on defense while being very aggressive on offense, and typically try to score 3 goals apiece. The regular over of 2.5 carries a lot of juice so I’ll go with the plus return here and hope for plenty of scoring.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1233-1082 ATS (+72.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.