Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/21

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics -5 @ Atlanta Hawks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Much like with Philadelphia yesterday, Boston is in a position where they can’t mess around in this series and let it drag out. They just watched the Sixers take a 3-0 lead last night, and the Celtics will face them next so it would be wise to knock the Hawks out quickly. This venue change to Atlanta is not worth the adjustment on the spread either, as the Celtics covered double digits in Games 1 and 2 fairly easily.

Atlanta wasn’t great against the number at home this season, just 18-23 ATS, including 0-2 when the Celtics came to town. The desperation factor might give the Hawks a boost early in this game as it does for so many teams in an 0-2 hole. But nothing is going to change the fact that Atlanta simply can’t play defense, and Boston should continue getting whatever they want offensively. I’ll take the location discount with Boston here, and count on them to continue rolling this overmatched Hawks team.

NBA (1 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers @ NY Knicks -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

It was fairly predictable to see the Cavaliers turn things around after a flop in Game 1, but tonight I think it’s New York’s turn to bounce back. The Knicks were never close in Game 2, and that should fuel them tonight behind a raucous crowd at Madison Square Garden. I think home court is going to matter going forward in this series, especially after the Knicks stole it to open the series.

It mattered in the regular season, when New York won both meetings in MSG, even though they were relatively tight affairs. But that was typical of Cleveland, who wasn’t great on the road this season. The Cavaliers were specifically bad as a road underdog, just 3-13 straight up. With this line at more or less a pick-em price, that inability for Cleveland to win as a road dog is important. The Knicks offense is far more efficient at home too, so I see them taking a 2-1 series lead here.

MLB (1 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Tampa Bay Rays Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Sun

This total is relatively low because there’s an expectation of Michael Kopech figuring it out for Chicago despite a slow start. But tonight doesn’t seem like the night, as the Rays return home where they’ve been crushing the ball, to face the right-handed ChiSox starter, which they’ve also been crushing. Tampa has scored 7.8 runs per game at home so far, with a .950 OPS, and a weighted runs-created-plus number that’s 32 runs higher than MLB’s second-highest team.

And the Rays against right-handed pitching are just as dominant, leading all of baseball in just about every offensive category. If they continue that here, then this total is one they could reach on their own, but Chicago should get theirs as well. We’ll see an opener from Tampa, which is a strategy that has resulted in some high-scoring games, and Chicago’s potent offense should benefit from finally being indoors. But with the Rays already 7-3 over this total at home this season, I’ll count on another outburst of runs here.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Oakland A’s @ Texas Rangers -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

I’m not sure when things will turn around for Oakland, or if they ever will, but in the meantime I’m going to keep fading them. They just set a record for the worst run differential through 19 games in baseball history, so if you expect them to lose, expect them to lose spectacularly. There isn’t much reason to expect a sudden turnaround here against a Rangers team that’s heating up.

Texas spent the first part of this week beating up on bad pitching in Kansas City, and returning home where they hit even better should allow them to keep it rolling. They also have a history of success against A’s starter JP Sears, tagging him for a 5.00 ERA and .314 on-base average allowed last season. Rangers starter Jon Gray is probably due for some regression soon, but not against an Oakland lineup that’s so futile against righties. This might be another game that gets completely out of hand for Oakland, so I’ll lay the run line against them here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1224-1077 ATS (+69.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.