Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/18

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics 1st Half -6 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV

Boston led the Hawks by 30 at half on Saturday, but it’s actually the second half result that has me liking this bet. They almost let Atlanta back into that game, and Joe Mazzula and the whole team talked about needing to maintain intensity throughout the game. I think that creates the best effort out of the Celtics early here, and makes this first half number too short.

It was obvious in Game 1 that this Hawks team is overmatched, and you can see Boston frustrating Trae Young into bad decisions with their length on the perimeter. Atlanta’s porous defense isn’t going to get better in the playoffs, and a Celtics team that leads the league in first-half scoring should keep getting whatever it wants. Boston also has the best average first-half margin in the league, and averages a plus-7 margin in home first halves, so I think more of the same from Saturday is coming tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Donovan Mitchell Over 32.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

Cleveland’s supporting cast was nonexistent in their Game 1 loss, so Mitchell knows he needs to carry this team. He dropped 38 in that game without getting to the line much and shooting poorly from 3, so I don’t see that many points as a fluke. He also turns it up against the Knicks, going over this total in 5 of the past 7 meetings while averaging 33.3 PPG against his hometown team. If the Cavs have any hope of evening the series, they need at least this much out of their star guard.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Jalen Brunson Over 24.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

It’s all about shot volume combined with efficiency for Brunson, and I think those factors get him over this total. He’s becoming more of a volume shooter as the season goes on, and I’m expecting well over 20 field goal attempts again in Game 2 tonight. And his points-per-40 minutes has exploded this season to 27.5, which definitely matters in the playoffs with shortened rotations and more minutes for the starters. Look for Brunson to be the focal point of New York’s offense and have another big night.

NBA (1 Unit) Kawhi Leonard Over 40.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

It’s hard to think of too many people playing better basketball since late February than Kawhi is. He’s seen significant increases in all stat categories even before Paul George went out, and obviously needs to be the man for LA in this series. The Clippers have to run everything through him, so even if he doesn’t drop 38 points again, he’ll still contribute through assists and rebounds. And the guy who’s famous for load management played 42 minutes on Sunday, which I don’t see changing in a series that should continue to be tight. So the opportunity will be there for him to pad all stat categories and get over this total.

MLB (1 Unit) Minnesota Twins ML @ Boston Red Sox (-115; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

It’s sad after a once-dominant career, but I think we’re seeing the end of Chris Sale now. While the Twins haven’t been great against lefties, Sale just keeps getting shelled by everyone and this game should be no different. The Red Sox lefty has been tagged for a 2.08 WHIP and massive 7.57 FIP, so the poor performances really are all on him.

And I’m also backing Sonny Gray here, who has dominated two really good lineups from the White Sox and Astros in his last 2 starts. The Red Sox have been far worse against right-handed pitchers like Gray this season, and he really appears to be in a groove. There’s some brand name bias on Boston and Sale here mispricing the Twins, so I’m taking advantage.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/Colorado Rockies Over 13 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM

This total is even a little high for normal Rockies home games, but it’s definitely justified and has been moving up as well. There are two gas can pitchers taking the mound here, particularly Jose Urena of the Rockies who already has a 9.90 ERA and 2.50 WHIP. This Pittsburgh offense is surprisingly competent even without O’Neill Cruz, as they showed yesterday in hanging 14 runs themselves against a far better starting pitcher.

But the Rockies should be able to contribute more than the 3 runs they put up yesterday against Vince Velasquez. Once again the Rockies are drastically better at hitting in home games, and their second game of a home stand often sees much more production at the plate. Both teams will benefit from the Coors conditions today as a big wind is blowing out to right, and should combine with the elevation and bad pitching to get this game over the total.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago Cubs -1.5 @ Oakland A’s (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

I don’t think this Cubs team is getting enough credit for their start this season, and being able to get standard juice on the run line against the pitiful Athletics is too good to pass up. Chicago has very underrated pitching, a deep lineup that can really hit, and the results have spoken for themselves the past couple of series. I think they crush the “Triple-A’s” again after last night’s 10-1 win.

It’s a pitching matchup that almost couldn’t be better for the Cubbies, as they’ll face Ken Waldichuk who has been hit hard in every start. Chicago has the best batting average against lefties like him, plus they rank top-5 in most advanced and weighted metrics. So if they crush Waldichuk and the poor Oakland bullpen, Marcus Stroman should take care of the rest. The A’s have some of the worst numbers in the league against righties, and Stroman has been dominant in his three starts, allowing just two total runs. That’s enough for me to back Chicago to pick up another win by margin tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1218-1068 ATS (+71.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.