Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) KC Royals -1.5 @ Chicago White Sox (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on ESPN+
The Royals sure look like they are for real, and if they are they’ll likely hand out more beating to Chicago in this series. Kansas City already beat up on the White Sox in their first series of the season with a 4-game sweep where they went 3-1 on the run line. In fact, 8 of their 10 wins this season have come by multiple runs, while Chicago just got swept by the run line over the weekend. The White Sox are too injury-plagued to put up enough offense right now, plus they’re giving Nick Nastrini his first big league action tonight. I’m not overthinking this one – it shouldn’t take the Royals being for real to crush this awful team tonight.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ Houston Astros (+135; Odds via Fanduel): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
The pitching matchup here between a couple of relatively unknown starters has knocked the game down to essentially a pick-em price. But that just creates an opportunity to back the Atlanta offense to do what they usually do at a great plus-money return. The Astros starting Spencer Arrighetti tonight is an opportunity for the Braves to pounce on a bad starter, plus punish a bullpen that’s 27th in ERA this season. The Braves have been an excellent run line bet away from home where they get all 9 at-bats, with all of their road wins coming by multiple runs. In a game that could turn into a slugfest, I’ll back the best offense in baseball to pull away against bad pitching.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Atlanta Braves/Houston Astros Over 9.5 (-115; Odds via Fanduel)
Houston’s offense finally woke up over the weekend, scoring 25 runs in the three game series with Texas. Winning high-scoring games has become the only way for the Astros to overcome their pitching problems, going over this total in 7 of the past 10 while averaging 12.0 runs per game. Their bad pitching against Atlanta’s elite bats could see the Braves get over this on their own. But if the Astros stay hot at the plate against a replacement-level Braves starter in Darius Vines, this game should fly over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2197-1995 ATS (+96.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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