Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/14

Locks

NBA OKC Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

My frustration with this Timberwolves season is keeping me from offering an opinion on how I think this game will go for them. What I am looking at though is how they’ll be forced to play it. While it’s a game where I don’t necessarily see an over environment in regards to the total, I do see overs for individual production.

A shortened rotation and Minnesota’s injury woes will increase these players’ workloads, and thus their scoring contributions. I’m also seeing a more perimeter-oriented game, especially if Rudy Gobert remains out or is limited. That should mean a lot of three-point shooting against a Thunder team that allows the 6th-most three-point makes on the road this season.

1 Unit: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 23.5 Points (-110)

0.25 Unit: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+140)

0.75 Unit: Mike Conley Over 14.5 Points (-110)

0.25 Unit: Mike Conley Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+110)

0.5 Unit: Taurean Prince Over 9.5 Points (-110)

0.25 Unit: Taurean Prince Over 1.5 Made Three’s (-110)

1 Unit: Lugentz Dort Over 14.5 Points (-110)

NBA (0.25 Unit) Chicago Bulls +5.5 @ Miami Heat (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on TNT

Let’s just put it out there that I don’t believe Miami has any business being favored in this game, and certainly not by this big a margin. For that reason I’m also putting a quarter unit on Bulls moneyline at +185, so we’ll call that an official bonus bet. And how can you not like Chicago here after they went 3-0 straight up against Miami this season, each time as underdogs.

This is just not the Heat team of old, and they’re still trading on that name recognition to some extent. They looked pretty bad against Atlanta on Tuesday despite the Hawks shooting 24.4% from deep and 59.3% from the charity stripe. If the Bulls can carry over the shooting they found in the second half against Toronto, I’m liking their chances of keeping this close or taking it outright.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): DeMar DeRozan Over 22.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

DeRozan was visibly frustrated during Wednesday’s game, even though he had a fairly strong night. I think he comes into this one motivated, and will surpass a number that’s basically below his floor against Miami. The three meetings this season saw DeRozan log 37, 24, and 24 points, and he also averaged 24.0 in the three games last year so it’s no fluke. Part of why I’m down on Miami is weaker defense than in the past, so I’m seeing another strong night from DeRozan here.

MLB (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:07 PM CT on SNET

At some point the Rays are going to lose, but if it happens tonight I don’t think it will be because they flopped offensively. Not against Jose Berrios, who the Toronto organization should probably be pretty concerned about by now. I’m usually targeting Berrios on the road, but his struggles might not be location-dependent at this point with three rough starts in a row going back to the WBC.

Berrios was not good against Tampa last season, posting a 6.08 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and .344 on-base average allowed in three starts. This year’s Rays are far better at the plate, and lead baseball in the all-important categories of OPS, weighted on-base average, and weighted runs created-plus metrics against righties like Berrios. With Rogers Centre renovated into a modern-day little league park this season, I think the Rays jump all over Berrios and continue their torrid hitting.

MLB (1 Unit) Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ KC Royals (+115; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on MLB Network

Part of the reason the Royals are 1-6 against the run line at home this season is because their two home series have been against very good teams with excellent offenses. All Rays chatter aside, the Atlanta Braves might be the best team in baseball, with an extremely dangerous offense. Even though Brady Singer for KC has been strong at home over his career, the Braves seem too deep and powerful to not have a productive day at the plate here.

Atlanta has been excellent against the other bad teams they’ve faced, covering the run line in 5 of 6 games. They’ll send out Charlie Morton tonight, a veteran righty who I think can hold down this Royals lineup. Kansas City is at or near the bottom in just about every basic and advanced metric against right-handed pitching this year. So this weak offense should struggle, and Atlanta might not need all that much to win this one comfortably.

MLB (0.65 Unit) NY Mets -1.5 @ Oakland A’s (-130; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

This could be a low-scoring game where it’s tough for New York to pull away. That’s because both teams are starting right-handers and both offenses just plain stink against those pitchers. But there’s a very distinct difference between those starters, and I think it gives a significant edge to the Mets here.

The Kodai Senga hype appears to be fairly legitimate, and even though he’s only faced the Marlins in his two MLB starts he’ll see another weak offense here. Senga was pushed back specifically so he could face this weak Oakland lineup that struggles so much against righties.

James Kaprielian is not your typical right-hander either, as he’s been rocked in both starts this season and was far worse in home games last year. The Mets are too talented for these issues against righties to continue forever, tonight looks like a good chance to figure things out against Kaprielian and an awful bullpen, and I think it leads to an easy win for them.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1204-1048 ATS (+75.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.