Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/13

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/Cincinnati Reds First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

It’s interesting that we just saw this exact matchup last week, which happens often early in the season. The result was fairly predictable in a low-scoring game between two teams with inconsistent offenses, but underrated starting pitchers. I think Bailey Falter and Nick Lodolo combine for another pitcher’s duel here after last week’s game saw just a single run on the board after five innings.

Lodolo is easily my favorite of these sneaky-good pitchers, with the lefty off to an excellent start that’s building on a strong close to last season. He was excellent at home last season, and in his appearances against Philadelphia, allowing just a .184 average and .516 OPS to Phillies bats in his career. And Falter should continue his strong start here, with the Reds having a tough time against lefties like him. There’s a breeze blowing in at Great American Ballpark as well, so I’m counting on another low-scoring start.

MLB (1 Unit) Detroit Tigers/Toronto Blue Jays Over 9 (110; Odds via Caesars): 6:07 PM CT on MLB Network

Don’t let yesterday’s 4-3 result between these teams fool you, as that was against a left-handed starter from Detroit. The Blue Jays should get back to their high-scoring ways today, and Tuesday’s result will be more instructive, where they put up 9 runs against two right-handed Tigers pitchers. Toronto leads baseball in average against righties, and are top-5 in just about every advanced production and power metric.

So Spencer Turnbull who has already been roughed up by two good offenses is probably in trouble here, and like Tuesday the Jays might get to this total on their own. But don’t discount the potential for Detroit to contribute against Chris Bassitt tonight. They own a collective .308 average and .931 OPS against the Toronto righty, which their weak offense hits at least a little better. With the Rogers Centre so hitter-friendly this season, I’m seeing double-digit runs in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1204-1046 ATS (+77.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.