Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/12

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors -5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

I don’t like that this number is on the wrong side of 5 points, but I also don’t like what I see out of Chicago so I’m willing to lay it. The Raptors seem to be peaking at the right time while the Bulls more or less stumbled their way into the play-in game. A fully healthy Toronto roster also matters a lot, with plenty of versatile size to slow down Chicago’s scoring threats.

I think home court is also going to matter a lot tonight, with the home team winning all three regular season matchups and Toronto covering this margin in both home spots. The Raptors have been one of the best home teams all season, with the league’s second-best home ATS record both overall and as a home favorite. The Bulls will fight hard and this game might not be pretty, but eventually Toronto’s advantages should allow them to pull away for the comfortable win.

MLB (1.15 Unit) San Diego Padres @ NY Mets ML (-115; Odds via Caesars): 12:10 PM CT on MLB Network

Yesterday’s game between these teams had all the matchup advantages pointing towards the Padres, and they proved that true. Today is completely flipped, and I’m backing the home Mets here. This is a get-out game for San Diego as they have a home game tomorrow night, and that often sees key players rest and/or the team not fully engaged this early in the season.

But as long as Blake Snell is going for the Padres in this road spot, I’m even more comfortable backing the opposing team. I’ve never trusted the Padre lefty away from home, and a Mets squad that’s hitting lefties far better this season should pounce. If they give some decent support to Tylor Megill, the Mets starter should continue his strong start to the season. I might be bouncing back and forth between bounce-back spots, but I think it’s a good situation for New York to take the series.

MLB (1 Unit) Oakland A’s/Baltimore Orioles Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:35 PM CT on MASN

It’s likely that the Orioles will need to do the bulk of the work here, but against this pitching staff they could easily do all of it. Oakland will send out Ken Waldichuk to get victimized again after the lefty has given up 14 total runs in his two starts. This Baltimore lineup is extremely potent as they showed last night, and have been crushing left-handed pitching so far this year for a .276 average and .909 OPS.

But don’t sleep on the potential of the A’s to contribute at least something that helps get this game over. They aren’t completely inept offensively as they also showed yesterday, and should get to Dean Kremer for some production. The Oriole righty has a 10.13 ERA and 1.88 WHIP through two starts against very talented lineups, but it’s still a concern for him. The bottom line though is Baltimore should score like crazy against Waldichuk and the bullpen that’s allowed the most runs in baseball, so I think that pushes this over the total.

MLB (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 4.5 (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Sun

The Rays went right back to hitting everything they saw last night after a one-game outage. I think that continues here against a pitcher for Boston who is getting too much respect for his brand-name value. Chris Sale is just not what he used to be, having already allowed 10 runs in two starts this season and looking rough even against the Tigers last week.

Sale’s WHIP of 2.00 is very concerning, especially against a patient hitting club like Tampa. And the Boston lefty has always had trouble with the Rays, as the Tampa lineup owns a cumulative .392 average and 1.014 OPS against him. With Tampa now 9-2 over this team total on the year and continually exploiting poor pitching, I think they jump all over Sale and a mediocre bullpen for plenty more runs tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1201-1045 ATS (+74.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.