Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/11

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Anthony Davis Over 38.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

I don’t want to get involved with either the spread or total in this game given all the weirdness around the Timberwolves, plus how different the play-in games have been compared to the regular season. But one thing I do know is the Wolves are in trouble down low tonight, and Anthony Davis should be in line for another monster game.

With no Rudy Gobert or Naz Reid available, the Minnesota frontcourt is extremely thin, and the players getting lots of minutes at the five spot are fairly limited defensively. That’s bad news against Davis, who cleared this prop with ease in both his games against the Wolves this season. AD is averaging 38.4 on the season for this prop so it seems like a fair number from that standpoint. But factoring in Minnesota’s depth issues and the playoff stakes has me thinking we’ll see a big game from the Laker big man.

MLB (0.5 Unit) San Diego Padres ML @ NY Mets (+120; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on SNY

I’m looking for a bounce back here from an undervalued and underappreciated Padres team. Yesterday’s loss was fairly predictable, having to face Max Scherzer after playing on Sunday Night Baseball, which never goes well for the team that travels for a Monday game. So that is probably inflating the Mets a little here, and short moneyline underdogs have been performing very well so far this season.

I also like that San Diego is sending out Ryan Weathers, who is finally healthy and looking to justify all the positivity around him. And the Padres should also have success against David Peterson, who has a 6.00 ERA and 2.11 WHIP despite facing the meek Marlins in both his starts. The Padres are hitting lefties like Peterson a lot better this season, so expect them to bounce back and cash as underdogs tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) St Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies ML (+145; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM

There is a lot of brand-name bias going into this line, and I’m not falling for it. The Cardinals are obviously expected to be a far better team than the Rockies this season, but that hasn’t proven true yet. This big of a plus-juice return makes Colorado enticing, especially with their strength at home and the Cards looking pretty rough on the road so far.

The brand name of Miles Mikolas, fresh off an All-Star season last year, is also playing a role. But the Cardinal righty started struggling in August, and has continued this season with consecutive outings of allowing 5 runs. By comparison, Kyle Freeland hasn’t allowed a run yet this season, and has fairly decent numbers against the potent St Louis bats. But those bats have been awfully quiet lately, so look for Freeland to hold them down while Mikolas struggles, resulting in a Rockies upset.

MLB (1 Unit) LA Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings @ SF Giants (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:45 PM CT on NBCS-BA

I’m specifically looking to exploit the starting pitcher matchup here because it’s one that I really think benefits the Dodgers. If he stays healthy, Dustin May should have an All-Star caliber season, and I think it continues on that pace here. He has excellent career numbers against San Francisco, and the past two seasons has been dominant against left-handed bats which is where the Giants get most of their production from.

And concerns about free agent departures or key injuries for the Dodgers aren’t terribly concerning any longer. This offense is clicking, and should continue that against Alex Wood tonight. The Giant lefty has always had trouble with the Dodgers, owning a 6.75 ERA in 3 starts last season and allowing a career .299 average to their lineup. With strong matchup advantages on the mound and at the plate, the Dodgers should have a comfortable lead after 5 innings tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers -1.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars)

Going back to the start of last season, the Dodgers are 15-5 on the run line against San Francisco. So it’s a little surprising to see a plus-money return on the run line for LA, as you’d usually have to pay a premium for the Dodgers as a brand-name team. The Giants are facing the matchup disadvantages I mentioned above, plus a bullpen that’s 28th in ERA and has troubling deeper metrics. I think that leads to LA taking this one with ease.

Extra Bonus Bets (0.5 Unit Each): Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Hits (+180) & Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)

I mentioned Alex Wood has trouble against the Dodgers, but he really has problems with Mookie Betts. The leadoff man for LA (which means he has the highest potential for at-bats) is a massive 9-for-18 lifetime against Wood with a ridiculous 1.717 OPS. Betts erupted with a 3-hit game last night, and has had multiple bases in 6 games already this season. Given his history with Wood, I think he has another productive night at the plate here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1198-1041 ATS (+75.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.