Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/09

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Toronto Raptors Over 238 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on TSN

My sense is that this total isn’t much higher than it is because both teams are essentially neutral to totals overall. Plus, Toronto at home and Indiana on the road are splits that heavily favor the under on the season. But all they’ve done against each other is get into ridiculous track meets, putting up 263, 252, and 252 again in the season series.

The Raptors are just counting the days until the season is over and will put no effort into the defensive end of the floor here. They’ve been allowing 121.2 PPG in March and April, so facing the team that’s the league’s best in shooting and scoring should raise that average. Both teams should play with a lot of pace here, so look for another shootout between these squads.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics -1.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

I don’t know how you can back the Bucks right now, so I just have to take Boston here. Milwaukee has gone 2-7 ATS in their past 9 games, all laying points, including the infamous losses as big favorites to awful teams. Something just seems broken with this team, so it’s probably the wrong time to play the Celtics. Interestingly enough, the Bucks are 3-0 ATS against Boston this season, but those spreads were drastically different than tonight’s number. The change in pricing to essentially a pick-em for the best team in the league against a broken team has me jumping in, enough said.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Milwaukee Bucks Team Total Under 113.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Since their embarrassing losses in Atlanta a couple weeks ago, Boston has decided that defense is important. The result is five straight games of holding their opponent to 107 points or less, and they’re capable of doing it again here. Part of Milwaukee’s issues during this 2-7 ATS run is them only averaging 110.0 PPG, and only getting over this team total once in their past 6 games. This game should have a playoff feel to it and I think that keeps scoring down in general, but particularly for the struggling team.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Miami Marlins @ NY Yankees -1.5 (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:05 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

I don’t usually like laying the run line with home teams, but I have to adjust that philosophy when the Marlins are involved. It’s getting really sad for this team at 1-10 on the season, and all but one of those losses has come by multiple runs. So if you think Miami is losing, they’re likely to do it in spectacular fashion. I definitely think they’re losing tonight with the pitching mismatch of AJ Puk against Carlos Rodon, but laying that kind of juice on the Yankees is just not reasonable. But getting plus money on them to inflict another run line loss on the pitiful Marlins is definitely worth a tweak to the philosophy.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2192-1987 ATS (+97.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.