Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/08

Locks

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Purdue Team Total Under 69.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:20 PM CT on TBS

So UConn finally allowed a team to get over 60 points in the tournament, something that hadn’t happened since last year’s Sweet 16 game for them. Alabama was shooting over 70% from three for a long time in that game on Saturday, and they still couldn’t get to their team total. That’s how suffocating this Huskies defense has been, and I see a defensive-oriented game here as well.

Both UConn and Purdue like to slow things down, especially in second halves, so I don’t see the tempo needed to create a high-scoring game. And with Donovan Clingan matching up against Zach Edey, that neutralizes Purdue’s usual route to easy points in a way the Boilermakers have never experienced. With a big spread in this game between two ATS juggernauts I’d prefer to look to this derivative market, and I think UConn’s 4th-ranked overall defense comes to play.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): UConn -3.5 Second Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Whether you have a book that lets you bet this pre-game or you find a similar number at halftime, this is the only set number that I’d play from a spread perspective tonight. After they breezed through the first weekend of the tournament, UConn has gotten serious in second halves of their games.

We all know what they did to Illinois, but it’s a feature of this team that leads the country in average second-half margin. Both teams have been elite in first halves this season so we could see a tighter game at halftime. But the Huskies are far better after the break than Purdue, and I think this is a cheap number given their success.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Mason Gillis Over 5.5 Points (+105)

0.25 Unit – Lance Jones Under 10.5 Points (-110)

0.25 Unit – Alex Karaban Over 4.5 Rebounds (-110)

0.25 Unit – Cam Spencer Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+135)

0.25 Unit – Fletcher Loyer Over 1.5 Made Three's (-105)

0.25 Unit – Braden Smith Over 1.5 Made Three's (+150)

MLB (0.75 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks Team Total Over 6.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on COLR

This is mostly about fading Kyle Freeland, the so-called ace of this sad Rockies team. The last time Freeland saw the Diamondbacks he gave up 10 runs on opening day, and while that may not happen again it’s still an indicator of how low the floor is for Colorado’s pitching. And if Freeland had rebounded in his next start I might be concerned here, but he went out and allowed 7 runs in that game. I have to treat Freeland as the gas can he is until something changes, and with the Rockies bullpen having the second-highest ERA so far this season, Arizona should be in for plenty of runs at Coors tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2188-1982 ATS (+97.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.