Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/05

Locks.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/NO Pelicans 1st Half Under 111.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports NO

This is a much different number than yesterday when the Pelicans faced the high-scoring Kings, but it’s also a much different situation. With Memphis in town after all but wrapping up the 2-seed last night, I’m expecting the Grizzlies to be resting starters in this game. The market seems to expect that as well with New Orleans significant favorites and the total on its way down. I think the lower-scoring game that’s expected will start early as the Pelicans rely on strong defense in this critical game.

New Orleans has the 3rd-best scoring defense before halftime, and should be able to shut down Memphis reserves. The three meetings this season have seen an average of 113 first-half points with a mostly healthy Grizzlies roster playing. The key though is the second quarter, which is when bench players get the most time, and Memphis averaged only 23.7 points. That shows the Pelicans know how to shut down those reserves, and should again tonight.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Dallas Mavericks 1st Quarter Over 62 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

The Kings enter this game in a similar situation to the Grizzlies, as Sacramento just wrapped up the 3-seed last night. So they may also rest some players tonight, and be sure to keep an eye on the injury report in case key names show up as out for this one. But it may not actually matter with how Sacramento plays, the defensive issues for Dallas, and how these teams have played in previous meetings.

Putting Sacramento on no rest usually means points, as the Kings are 9-5 to the over with a plus-12.2 average margin to the total. And even reserves can score against Dallas, as the Mavericks have allowed 33.2 first-quarter points in the past 5 games. But Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic are expected to go tonight, giving a big boost to the Mavs offense. Both meetings this season came after Irving was traded to Dallas, and those games had first quarters of 66 and 70 points. I think we see more of the same in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1190-1030 ATS (+76.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.