Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/05

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 106.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV

I have my concerns with this Wolves offense without Karl-Anthony Towns, but Anthony Edwards finally broke out of his slump and there are equal concerns about how Phoenix defends. The Suns are a below-average defensive team, even at home, where they allow 113.7 points per game and are 18th in defensive efficiency.

The first meeting between these teams all the way back in November is not a good reference point since the Wolves were in a really tough scheduling spot. But they still scored 115 points in the blowout loss, and should be able to get over this much lower number tonight. Minnesota being the underdog creates this very attainable total, and I say they reach it in a critical game.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic -11.5 @ Charlotte Hornets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

Orlando wrecks bad teams, it’s just what they do. They’ve done it to Charlotte three times already this season, covering this number every game. And the Hornets get wrecked by good teams, with 11 of their past 12 losses coming by double digits. The Magic are jockeying for playoff positioning while the Hornets are tanking, it really doesn’t need to get more complicated than that in my mind.

NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs +11 @ New Orleans Pelicans (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

The Spurs are not like other teams that will end up with a high lottery pick in June, they’re actually trying. And with Victor Wembenyama figuring things out more and more every day, San Antonio has been competitive. This team is 14-6 ATS in their past 20 games and have covered 5 in a row, yet they keep seeing big numbers like this. The Pelicans should not be laying this many points with Brandon Ingram out and Zion Williamson questionable tonight. Those New Orleans stars had big roles in the previous meetings with the Spurs this season, so I think a hard-working San Antonio team keeps this one close.

Degenerates

NCAA Women’s Tournament Paige Bueckers Over 27.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

If you’re not as excited for tonight’s Final Four as tomorrow’s, then just go crawl back under that rock. This should be an absolute classic of a game tonight, and while so much attention is on Caitlin Clark’s props, I’m going a slightly different route. I just think all the attention on Clark has steamed her numbers too high, and let’s not forget that Bueckers was headed for Clark’s level of stardom before knee injury issues. The two stars should trade haymakers all night, and I like this lower number for a player who is just as talented as the marquee name in this contest.

Tiny Nick is 2184-1976 ATS (+98.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.